Data-a-Roo: Examining Dice-a-Roo Outcomes

On Roo Island, there is a regal Blumaroo beckoning you to play a little dice game. This game is called Dice-a-Roo, and it has a simple premise. Here is how it works: each game costs 5 NP, after which you begin to “roll" dice to win prizes. There are a total of five dice colors, which you can randomly roll to advance to. You begin with red, then advance to blue, green, yellow, and finally silver in that order. Each color adds a new set of outcomes, with the later dice holding more prizes and increased odds of a game over. These dice are high-risk, high-reward. While you often risk a game over by continuing, you have a chance at obtaining a jackpot, which also comes with an additional avatar reward!

However, Dice-a-Roo is a random gambling game. You could play a long game and win a number of notable prizes, such as food items and lottery tickets. Or you could get a game over within your first few clicks. How often are these outcomes possible? How likely are you to win NP? Food? Lottery tickets? How often can you advance? And what are your chances of losing it all in a game over?

That’s where I come in. I work as a researcher, and studying the odds of events is a key part of what I do. I find collecting and analyzing data to be fun, and I wanted to study the outcomes of a Neopian game. On the suggestions of some friends, I set out to discover exactly what actually happens when you play Dice-a-Roo.

My methods for collecting my Dice-a-Roo data were simple. I would play each game, recording each dice color and outcome until I reached game over. Then I would restart and start again. I kept track of the number of games and how many rolls I completed before reaching game over. My goal was to complete at least 2,000 rolls. I ended up with slightly more. My final data includes 2,016 Dice-a-Roo rolls. Red die comprised 1,193 of rolls, 588 were blue, 169 were green, 64 were yellow, and 2 (yes, only 2!) were silver.

I analyzed my data simply by looking at the frequency of outcomes both in terms of overall results and by dice color. For simplicity, I have rounded the percentages reported in this article. There are multiple outcomes possible in this game, with some of them happening only a minority of the time. Thus, I only report on key outcomes, such as winning prizes, advancing colors, and game overs.

So what does the average Dice-a-Roo game look like? You will spend approximately 60% of your time on the red die, 30% on the blue, 8% on the green, 3% on the yellow, and .1% on the silver. Most of your time is spent on red because game overs are relatively frequent in Dice-a-Roo. On average, you will get a game over after 9 rolls. But know that longer games are possible! In fact, one game of mine lasted 65 rolls before that dreaded skull dice.

In terms of outcomes, you are overall most likely to gain or lose Neopoints. You have a 45% chance of gaining Neopoints and a 22% chance of losing Neopoints. The next common outcome is a game over, which will occur about 10% of the time. Level up false alarms make up about 9% of rolls, while actual level ups will only occur 5% of the time. The rest of your outcomes – including Pant Devil attacks, lottery tickets, and mysterious winds – occur less than 4% of the time.

Now let’s discuss how these outcomes change with each color, starting with red.

Red

Red has a small handful of outcomes. You can win Neopoints, lose Neopoints, advance to the next color (or not), or get a game over (or not). Half of your rolls will gain Neopoints, while 16% will lose them. You will have quite a few false alarms: 12% will tease an advance, while 5% will tease a game over. You have a 6% chance of advancing, while game overs will occur 12% of the time.

Blue

Blue now introduces a new outcome…of nothing. Nothing will happen 8% of the time. Much like red, most of your rolls will gain (40%) or lose (33%) Neopoints. False alarms are now less frequent, occurring less than 5% of the time. You have an 8% chance of a game over, and a 3% chance of advancing.

Green

The green die is where your 5 Neopoint-per-game investment starts to pay off. You will receive a food item 8% of the time, which can be sold for a fair sum in your shop. However, you are still mostly likely to gain (39%) or lose (24%) Neopoints. You are also now subject to the mysterious wind blowing past, which does nothing. Thus, nothing will happen 13% of the time. You have a 5% chance of advancing, and a 5% chance of getting a game over.

Yellow

If you’ve noticed, the rates of getting a game over have decreased as you advanced in the game. This pattern does not follow here, as game overs comprise 11% of all rolls. But you can also start receiving more prizes during the yellow die. Lottery tickets are awarded in 9% of the rolls, and food is given during 5% of the rolls. Given that there are many outcomes on a yellow die, your chances of gaining or losing Neopoints has decreased significantly. However, you still have a 34% chance of gaining points, while you have a 27% chance of losing points. You have a 2% chance of advancing to the silver dice.

Silver

Unfortunately, I was not able to collect any conclusive data on the silver die due to how rare it is to get there. Out of 2,016 rolls, only 2 of them were on silver die. Both of my rolls had terrible outcomes. The first had the Pant Devil steal from my inventory, and the other was a game over. How depressing.

So what does this all mean? What should you take away from my time of clicking that “Roll Again" button?

First, understand that Dice-a-Roo is essentially a gambling game with a decent payoff. Your odds of gaining or losing NP from your pot are significant, though the amounts you get are miniscule. It is best to ignore the “Stop playing and collect NP" button, and instead aim to win food items. Although it may take time to get to the green dice and beyond, the food prizes justify your investment to Dice-a-Roo. Each game costs only 5NP, and any obtained food items can easily be sold for a few hundred NP.

However, you should also recognize that Dice-a-Roo is not necessarily a significant source of NP income. You will win small prizes at best, which usually do not sell for large sums of NP. While it is possible to obtain the Dice-a-Roo jackpot, my data suggests that it is extraordinarily rare. Of course, your experiences will vary from mine. I could simply be unlucky! But overall, I would suggest looking towards other avenues if your goal is to make NP.

Avid avatar collectors may have a bit of clicking in their futures. You can obtain an avatar from Dice-a-Roo, but it requires winning the jackpot. Remember that I only got 2 silver dice out of over 2,000 recoded die. Encountering the silver dice is rare, but possible. Just get used to clicking over and over, and hope that the odds are ever in your favor!

But finally, know that the choice to play Dice-a-Roo is all yours. There is always the chance that you can win a nice set of prizes, so play the game if you find it to be fun! If nothing else, you can potentially walk away with some nice food items and perhaps a winning lottery ticket or two!

I thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope that you have found it informative! If you enjoyed my work, I ask that you message me any suggestions of what I should study next. I am happy to continue examining the statistics of the world of Neopets!