Main Page Go to Short Stories Go back to Articles Go to Comics Go to Continued Series Go to Editorial Go to New Series

Show All | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 22 | Week 23 | Week 24 | Week 25 | Week 26 | Week 27 | Week 28 | Week 29 | Week 30 | Week 31 | Week 32 | Week 33 | Week 34 | Week 35 | Week 36 | Week 37 | Week 38 | Week 39 | Week 40 | Week 41 | Week 42 | Week 43 | Week 44 | Week 45 | Week 46 | Week 47 | Week 48 | Week 49 | Week 50 | Week 51 | Week 52 | Week 53 | Week 54 | Week 55 | Week 56 | Week 57 | Week 58 | Week 59 | Week 60 | Week 61 | Week 62 | Week 63 | Week 64 | Week 65 | Week 66 | Week 67 | Week 68 | Week 69 | Week 70 | Week 71 | Week 72 | Week 73 | Week 74 | Week 75 | Week 76 | Week 77 | Week 78 | Week 79 | Week 80 | Week 81 | Week 82 | Week 83 | Week 84 | Week 85 | Week 86 | Week 87 | Week 88 | Week 89 | Week 90 | Week 91 | Week 92 | Week 93 | Week 94 | Week 95 | Week 96 | Week 97 | Week 98 | Week 99 | Week 100 | Week 101 | Week 102 | Week 103 | Week 104 | Week 105 | Week 106 | Week 107 | Week 108 | Week 109 | Week 110 | Week 111 | Week 112 | Week 113 | Week 114 | Week 115 | Week 116 | Week 117 | Week 118 | Week 119 | Week 120 | Week 121 | Week 122 | Week 123 | Week 124 | Week 125 | Week 126 | Week 127 | Week 128 | Week 129 | Week 130 | Week 131 | Week 132 | Week 133 | Week 134 | Week 135 | Week 136 | Week 137 | Week 138 | Week 139 | Week 140 | Week 141 | Week 142 | Week 143 | Week 144 | Week 145 | Week 146 | Week 147 | Week 148 | Week 149

Neopia's Fill in the Blank News Source | 21st day of Swimming, Yr 26
The Neopian Times Week 56 > Articles > Kissing Mortogs for Fun and Profit

Kissing Mortogs for Fun and Profit

by scriptfox

MERIDELL - Anyone exploring around the castle in Meridell soon comes across a whole bunch of Mortogs. Their owner claims that some are princes (or princesses, depending on the sex of your current pet), and offers to let you try and change them--for a price. But just how fair is this price, and how likely are you to win or lose? Before that can be answered, a quick look at the game itself is in order.

The principle is easy enough to follow. You are given a number of Mortogs to choose from. Click on the one you want to kiss. If it's a prince, you get the chance to take your winnings and quit- or the opportunity to try for a larger stake. The luckier you are (the more you get correct in a row) the higher your winnings. But lose just once, and you lose it all- right back down to nothing. Since you put up fifty Neopoints to play, that means that every time you see a Mortog explode, you just kissed fifty Neopoints goodbye.

Dropping fifty Neopoints at a pop (literally) can get quite expensive, so before you dive in and start kissing every Mortog in sight, here is the list of what you might get:

Round:
Number
of
Mortogs:
Stakes:
1
2

100

2
3

300

3
4

1,150

4
5

5,900

5
6

35,000

6
7

250,000

7
8

2,000,000

"Wow!" you shout, "two million Neopoints! I'll get rich!" Maybe, maybe not- don't be in such a hurry! Take a closer look at that chart. Note that as you go through the rounds, there are more and more Mortogs to choose from. Since only ONE of them is a prince (or princess), that means that you have a one in eight chance of getting the prince (or princess) on the last round. That's not the bad news. The bad news is that you only get there AFTER choosing right in ALL OF THE OTHER rounds! In a row! Now just what are THOSE odds like? Take a look:

Round:
Winning Percentages:
Odds as 1 in X
Single Round Cumulative
1
50%
50%
1 in 2
2
33.33%
16.67%
1 in 6
3
25%
4.17%
1 in 24
4
20%
0.83%
1 in 120
5
16.67%
0.139%
1 in 720
6
14..29%
0.0198%
1 in 5,040
7
12.5%
0.00248%
1 in 40,320

At this point it becomes obvious that getting that two million is not going to be very easy. You start to calculate the cost... fifty Neopoints times the number of times needed to win it.... uh oh. It's not looking good at all. The following table shows you the average amount spent to win each round, and the average number of Neopoints returned per try:

Round Average spent
per win
Average won
per try
1

100

50

2

300

50

3

1,200

47.9

4

6,000

49.17

5

36,000

48.6

6

252,000

49.6

7

2,016,000

49.6

A word of explanation about that "average won per try." The formula for that is to take the total payout for that level and divide by the average number of times it takes to win (expressed in the "1 in X odds" chart above). For this to apply to you, however, you must play and NEVER take your winnings until that level and then ALWAYS cash out at that level. Whatever level you cash out at is the level you are "playing for." Note that since you spend fifty points per try, getting fifty back means that on average you will break even. Getting less than fifty back means that on average you lose more than you win.

At this point in the discussion, you're probably pretty discouraged. It seems that you'll never be able to make any money at kissing those Mortogs Indeed, coming up with a winning strategy certainly does seem hopeless in the long term. But remember, these are average results, not actual! The odds are that you will come out somewhere NEAR average, but not that it will be exact. There is a more hopeful way of looking at it. Let's say that you play twice at level one (and cash out when you win.) The odds of winning each time are fifty percent. The odds of winning BOTH times are twenty five percent. This means that you have only a one in four chance of losing one hundred points. Half the time you'll break even, and the other fourth of the time you'll win a hundred points! Sure, on average, you're still faced with the zero sum game- but the actual results show that the odds favour you not losing, and possibly winning.

All very pretty, but how well does it work out in practice? In my one marathon "kissing session," it didn't work out well at all. In order to win level four, and get that 5,900 points, I wound up spending about 13,000 points. That's 260 tries to win something with odds of 1 in 120. The math says that that result has odds of over seven to one against.... so am I extremely unlucky, is the math bad, or has someone rigged the game while we weren't looking???

After bemoaning my fate, railing against the uncaring odds, and other unmentionable targets, I was left with only one superstition about choosing a "lucky" Mortog I picked the Mortog that corresponded to the number of round that I was playing on. (The first on level one, the second on level two, etc...) It seemed to help- I know that I finally won that way- but after managing to lose so much against the odds, I hardly feel qualified to tell anyone how to win!

The bottom line is simple. You'd better like kissing Mortogs for the fun of it, because the profit is more likely than not going to blow up in your face!

Week 56 Related Links

Heilley Plays It Cool: Part One
"Hey, I lucked into a rich owner!"

by scriptfox


Malindria of Meridell
But now I was Malindria, the shrimply little Shoyru, who was also in love with a prince. I sighed. How could things get any worse?

by ewanspaz



Search :
Other Stories

Beauty Contest Research Report
How is anybody supposed to win a beauty competition?

by 2mist


The Evil Neopet Interviews: Hubrid Nox
Watching from behind a discarded cardboard box, I spotted Hubrid carefully moving a rubbish bin to one side, revealing a dark hole.

by bluescorchio104


What Faerie Blessed Ability is Right For You?
The usage of faerie blessed abilities is essential to a successful Battledome match.

by kickerwow


Games Room Dilemma?
You

by 10rose10


Getting Far in Neopia: Episode III - Attack of the Clowns
This week's issue deals with games, and the Neopoints (NP) you can make from them...

by stal0s


Neopets | Main | Articles | Editorial
Short Stories | Comics | New Series | Continued Series | Search