Hugo's Food Club page



My Food Club Bets for Round 5579 / July 25, 2014

I will be on a family hiliday from July 19 until -probably- July 31. During this period I might not bet, or bet at unusual times.
WARNING: the move from DST to normal time has caused the timing of Food Club to be glitched.
The gates close at the normal time (1:45pm - 2:15 pm NST), but the results of the match can already be seen as of approximately 1:00pm NST.
In the 12:55pm - 1:45pm NST time frame, bets can be made on the new match, but this is known to occasionally cause glitches.
My recommendation is to only bet before 12:55pm NST or after 2:15pm NST.
(Collecting winnings before 1:45pm NST is safe).
DISCLAIMER:
I put these bets online for everyone, to use however they see fit.
I do not guarantee a profit if you choose to use them.
If the bets lose, it's *your* Neopoints down the drain. If the bets win, It's *your* Neopoints to bring to the bank, or to spend however you see fit.
Using these bets does not put you under any obligation to thank, reward, or even pay (*) me.
(*) Gifting is allowed on Neopets, but paying for services is not. Please don't put your -and my!!- account at risk by crossing this line!

Gooblah won and there were small upsets in Shipwreck and Treasure Island, so I won a combined total of 16:10.
Okay, I guess.

We are looking at four positive arenas today.
Lagoon and Hidden Cove look fairly safe, but both Shipwreck and Treasure Island are risky. Because a double upset would ruin my bets, I decided to play three arenas, and I selected Treasure Island as the arena to leave out.
For the Shipwreck / Lagoon / Hidden Cove combination, I am looking at only two standard safeties, plus an additional safety on Blackbeard. I placed boosters on the three single-digit pirates in Treasure Island, on the two 2:1 pirates in Harpoon Harry's, and on long shot Ol'Stripey.
For my final bet, I could have chosen to do another long shot booster on Peg Leg, but instead I opted for the 8:1 base bet.

Current Bets
Round Bet Info Amount Odds Winnings
5579 Shipwreck: Fairfax the Deckhand
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 36:1 191448 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
Harpoon Harry's: Federismo Corvallio
5318 NP 16:1 85088 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
Harpoon Harry's: Ol' Stripey
5318 NP 104:1 553072 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 8:1 42544 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Treasure Island: Franchisco Corvallio
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 32:1 170176 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Treasure Island: Ned the Skipper
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 56:1 297808 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Treasure Island: Scurvy Dan the Blade
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 16:1 85088 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: Young Sproggie
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 28:1 148904 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Admiral Blackbeard
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
5318 NP 24:1 127632 NP
5579 Shipwreck: Lucky McKyriggan
Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid
Hidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl
Harpoon Harry's: Buck Cutlass
5318 NP 16:1 85088 NP
Total Possible Winnings 1786848 NP

Odds may change over the day. The listed odds are what they were at the time I updated the page.


Don't like my bets? Try one of these: (note that not all are updated daily)
Banano87's bets
Betty's bets
Booby's bets
Boringg's bets
Brandon's bets
Canon's bets
Christie's bets
Dutch's bets
Emily's bets
Garet's bets
Gmdaddy's bets
Greg's bets
Greylorn's bets
Haley's bets
Harry's bets
Jenn's bets
Kelf's bets
Kim's bets
Leafboyza's bets
Lefty's bets
Lucas' bets
Lukas' bets
Marc's bets
Marie's bets
Merc's bets
Morris' bets
Neoguy's bets
Osprey's bets
Paige's bets
Riley's bets
Sachi's bets
Seekers Food Club club (a competition of Food Club players who joined the Seekers during the Battle of the Obelisk; this page has links to several other pages as well).
Stac93's bets
Tracey's bets
Vicki's bets
Vicky's bets
Xouxounet's bets (Note: Page is in French)

These are all the Food Club pages I could find, listed in alphabetical order. I have not tried to assess the risks and chances of the various betters.
See a page missing from this list? Please mail me.

Some other Food Club related links:
Food Club main page
Revenge's Food Club guide
Greylorn's Food Club review
Sirhatter's betting guide
Christie's chart of Food Club Winners
Food Club Monthly Competition


My betting system

The bets I made are based on a method I started using in september 2010. This method has proved itself to be better than the method I used before, and lots better than my first attempts to outsmart the system.
Many thanks go to sirhatter. His betting guide has helped me make lots of neopoints, until I found a way to improve upon his method.
Without sirhatter, this guide would never have existed.

What odds to use?

The odds for the various pirates change throughout the day. Many people have different theories about the relevance of opening odds, movements, and closing odds.
My theory is that the opening odds are determined by the Neopets computer, based on their actual chances of winning, and that movements throughout the day are caused by players' actions: if a lot of players bet a pirate his odds go up; if almost noone includes him, his odds go down.
Since I consider the opening odds to best reflect the actual chances, these are the odds I always use when picking my bets.

Calculating value

The first step in my betting system is to calculate the value for each of the five arenas. The value is found by converting the listed odds to percentage values, adding those percentage values, and subtracting the total from 100%.
For example, suppose the pirates in an arena are listed as 2:1, 6:1, 8:1 and 13:1. Converting to percentages yields 50%, 16.67%, 12.5%, and 7.69%; a total of 86.86%.
The value of this arena is 13.14% (100% - 86.86%).

Choosing bets

The next step is to count the number of arenas with a positive value, since the bets to be made depend on the number of positive values.

If there are no arenas with a positive value:

In this case, I don't bet at all.
There are people who will bet, and some will even make nice wins. But in my experience, you'll lose more neopoints than you win in the long run, so the winning strategy is not to bet if no arenas have a positive value.

If there is one arena with a positive value:

In the positive value arena, find the pirate with the 2:1 odds. (There should always be exactly one). I will make ten bets (the maximum), all on this pirate + one other pirate.

Here's how to find the ten pirates to include in these bets are:

  1. Start with the remaining arena with the highest value. (Since the remaining arenas have negative values, remember that -2.5% is higher then -14.8%!).
    Use all pirates from this arena, except those that have 13:1 odds. (The reason why I omit 13:1 pirates is that their real odds might be much worse. The Food Club never goes below 13:1, but the actual odds may be worse - and an actual win chance of (for instance) 25:1 with a payout of only 13:1 is terrible value. Sometimes, the strength and food adjustments of pirates indicate that it might be a "real" 13:1; in those cases, I do include the 13:1 pirate in these bets).
  2. Repeat the previous step until you have exhausted the ten bets.

Note that you must include all pirates from at least one arena. If all the arenas with "high" negative value have one or two 13:1 pirates, then you must either use a different arena, or include the 13:1 pirates from one arena (check strength and food adjustment to find one that is at least close to a "real" 13:1).

If there are two arenas with a positive value:

Let's call the arenas with a positive value X and Y.
You place ten bets, as follows:

  1. One bet on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with the 2:1 pirate from Y;
  2. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
  3. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
  4. All remaining bets are "booster bets" on three pirates: the two 2:1 pirates from X and Y plus one pirate from one of the three remaining arenas.
    The choice of the third pirate in the booster bets is similar to the choice for finding the second pirate in the section for one positive value above.
    One extra guideline is that the single 4:1 bet on the two 2:1 pirates may be replaced by a booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets. To make this happen, I sometimes include a 13:1 pirate in my set of booster bets.

If there are three arenas with a positive value:

If one of the three arenas has a very small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If all three arenas have at least a decent positive value, or if you decide to take a bit more risk (and maybe win a bit more), then you can play the full three arenas.
Let's call the arenas with a positive value X, Y, and Z.
You place ten bets, as follows:

  1. Three bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y, from X and Z, and from Y and Z;
  2. One bet on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z;
  3. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Z;
  4. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
  5. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from Y and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
  6. All remaining bets (if there are any) are "booster bets" on four pirates: the three 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z, combined with one pirate from one of the two remaining arenas.
    The choice of the fourth pirate in the remaining bets is similar to the choice for finding the third pirate in the section for two positive values above. This also includes the option to replace the single 8:1 bets on the three 2:1 pirates with an extra booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets.

If there are four arenas with a positive value:

This is extremely rare - and offers a very good chance to make lots of neopoints!

If two of the four arenas have an extremely small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If one of the four arenas has smallish positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for three arenas with a positive value (using the three arenas with the highest values).
If all four arenas have a very high value (20% or better), you can choose to go "all in" on the 2:1 pirates from these arenas:

  1. Four bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from each possible combination of three of the positive value arenas;
  2. Six bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates each possible combination of two of the positive value arenas.

If all five arenas have a positive value:

This is an extremely rare scenario. I have seen it happen - but only once or twice in more than a year of playing almost every day!
Anyway, if it does happen, then the method is similar to the four-arena scenario above.
There are two alternative strategies, though. The first one can be used if all five arenas have an extremely high value:

  1. Five bets on four 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of four arenas).
  2. Five bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every arena in three of these five bets, or using the highest value arenas more often).
  3. Optionally, replace one of the five bets on three pirates with a five-way bet on all pirates.

The second one can be used if all five arenas have a moderately high value, and all of them are about as likely to upset (so no easy choice of which arenas to leave out when you want to fallback on the two-, three- or four-arena game):

  1. Ten bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of three arenas).
  2. Alternatively, make this ten bets on two 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of two arenas).

Final note

I consider the above system as a guideline.
I usually end up betting according to this system, but I also always check strength and food adjustment of the pirates in each arena.
Sometimes I end up deviating from the method described above. In some cases, this has made me more money, or reduced my loss. In other cases, it has cost me money.

And remember, Food Club is a gambling game. No matter how smart your system, you will always have days, sometimes even weeks, where you win nothing. Don't worry, just keep on playing. My statistics (see below) prove that in the long run, I come out ahead.


Statistics

The tables below list my results. These reflect the bets I made since I started to use the method described above.

Daily breakdown of the last month
Round Date Result
5548 June 24, 2014 8:10 (-2)
5549 June 25, 2014 8:10 (-2)
5550 June 26, 2014 12:10 (+2)
5551 June 27, 2014 28:10 (+18)
5552 June 28, 2014 16:10 (+6)
5553 June 29, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5554 June 30, 2014 16:10 (+6)
5555 July 1, 2014 14:10 (+4)
5556 July 2, 2014 14:10 (+4)
5557 July 3, 2014 16:10 (+6)
5558 July 4, 2014 28:10 (+18)
5559 July 5, 2014 No bets1
5560 July 6, 2014 No bets2
5561 July 7, 2014 26:10 (+16)3
5562 July 8, 2014 32:10 (+22)
5563 July 9, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5564 July 10, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5565 July 11, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5566 July 12, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5567 July 13, 2014 24:10 (+14)
5568 July 14, 2014 80:10 (+70)
5569 July 15, 2014 No bets4
5570 July 16, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5571 July 17, 2014 48:10 (+38)
5572 July 18, 2014 12:10 (+2)
5573 July 19, 2014 12:10 (+2)
5574 July 20, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5575 July 21, 2014 14:10 (+4)
5576 July 22, 2014 24:10 (+14)
5577 July 23, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5578 July 24, 2014 16:10 (+6)

Notes:
1 In round 5559, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 0:10 result I actually had.
2 In round 5560, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 12:10 result I actually had.
3 In round 5561, I decided to play a set of bets that was different from the bets my system advised. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the 26:10 that my system would have given me instead of the 52:10 result I actually had.
4 In round 5569, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 40:10 result I actually had.


Aggregated results per month
Month Total results Profit Avg daily profit Avg return
September, 2010 430:270 +160 +5,33 +59,3%
October, 2010 538:310 +228 +7,35 +73,5%
November, 2010 512:270 +242 +8,64 +89,6%
December, 2010 488:300 +188 +6,27 +62,7%
January, 2011 646:280 +366 +13,07 +130,7%
February, 2011 288:260 +28 +1,08 +10,8%
March, 2011 374:280 +94 +3,36 +33,6%
April, 2011 432:300 +132 +4,40 +44,0%
May, 2011 514:290 +224 +7,72 +77,2%
June, 2011 490:280 +210 +7,50 +75,0%
July, 2011 268:200 +68 +3,40 +34,0%
August, 2011 176:220 -44 -2,00 -20,0%
September, 2011 562:290 +272 +9,38 +93,8%
October, 2011 492:270 +222 +8,22 +82,2%
November, 2011 428:280 +148 +5,29 +52,9%
December, 2011 486:290 +196 +6,76 +67,6%
January, 2012 766:290 +476 +16,41 +164,1%
February, 2012 254:260 -6 -0,23 -2,3%
March, 2012 504:280 +224 +8,00 +80,0%
April, 2012 682:280 +402 +14,36 +143,6%
May, 2012 510:310 +200 +6,45 +64,5%
June, 2012 514:280 +234 +8,36 +83,6%
July, 2012 308:130 +178 +13,69 +136,9%
August, 2012 604:260 +344 +13,23 +132,3%
September, 2012 432:280 +152 +5,43 +54,3%
October, 2012 488:290 +198 +6,83 +68,3%
November, 2012 428:290 +138 +4,76 +47,6%
December, 2012 588:280 +308 +11,00 +110,0%
January, 2013 388:270 +118 +4,37 +43,7%
February, 2013 722:270 +452 +16,74 +167,4%
March, 2013 464:270 +194 +7,19 +71,9%
April, 2013 440:280 +160 +5,71 +57,1%
May, 2013 518:290 +228 +7,86 +78,6%
June, 2013 598:300 +298 +9,93 +99,3%
July, 2013 444:290 +154 +5,31 +53,1%
August, 2013 640:280 +360 +12,86 +128,6%
September, 2013 774:290 +484 +16,69 +166,9%
October, 2013 508:290 +218 +7,52 +75,2%
November, 2013 526:280 +246 +8,79 +87,9%
December, 2013 564:300 +264 +8,80 +88,0%
January, 2014 456:280 +176 +6,29 +62,9%
February, 2014 510:260 +250 +9,62 +96,2%
March, 2014 614:280 +334 +11,93 +119,3%
April, 2014 316:240 +76 +3,17 +31,7%
May, 2014 576:310 +266 +4,84 +85,8%
June, 2014 604:300 +304 +10,13 +101,3%
July, 2014 360:210 +150 +7,14 +71,4%
Overall totals 23144:12860 +10284 +8,00 +80,0%



Recently collected winnings:




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