Intro
Welcome to my AC predictions page! Unfortunately, I doubt I'll be doing daily predictions because I'm very busy playing and helping out on the boards once the AC starts. We'll see what happens.
For now, I'll be posting and updating my pre-season predictions for ACVII here. I'll probably keep a board going, so feel free to discuss the predictions there, or neomail me.
The predictions are post-finals, assuming no major changes to the structure of the tournament, and not accounting for the impact of the All-Star groups.
The page begins with my Predictions and ends with my Power Rankings. Enjoy.
The Predictions
Under construction again
Tier 1
Pre-Finals:
1. Maraqua
After a bit of thought, it seems that Maraqua has the best chance of winning this year. I've tried to come up with reasons why MQ might struggle in ACVII and... There's not much I could think of. Their leadership transition is going well, they're probably the most organized team in the AC, and they've got a strong core group of players. Additionally, they had a pretty large number of freeloaders last year, so it seems unlikely that the freeloader issue will get much worse this year. They'll have to work on their ability to really step it up even further during finals if they expect to win, though. Additionally, they probably won't be as dominant as VP/KD last year, so they'll have to maintain a good balance, or they could fall a bit. Most importantly though, I don't think VP or KD will be quite as threatening as they were last year, which pretty much secures MQ's spot in Tier 1 and gives them a strong chance of victory. I expect marginal improvement in YYB and perhaps SOSD or MSN, with a slight drop in their SS focus. Again, given their size, I don't think they'll dominate like VP or KD from last year, but I think they probably have what it takes to win.
2. Kreludor
Kreludor was very hard for me to predict, because it's hard to believe that they won't fall, honestly. They're most likely losing SOTAC, which will hurt their YYB presumably... but they've done so well without SOTAC before. I really don't know where they'll end up. I don't think Kreludor will be nearly as dominant as they've been in the past, but they'll find a way to make it to 2nd place.
I could be underestimating SOTAC's impact on this team, but it would be silly to ignore KD for that reason alone. They've proven that they're strong without SOTAC, and a lot of people are counting them out for this reason anyway, so they may not attract too many freeloaders.
3. Darigan Citadel
DC was gigantic last year. Some estimates/surveys suggest that they had 25% of all of the players, which is just absurd with 17 other teams out there. Along with this size, they apparently had over 200 All-Stars, which is also pretty crazy, but it clearly wasn't enough to put them into Tier 1. Perhaps they'll be just as big this year, but I think they'll lose a large chunk of those freeloaders while retaining most/all of their All-Stars, leading to a much more dangerous team this year.
They were great at MSN last year, with strong SOSD as well. I suspect that they'll do everything they can to boost YYB this year, though, which is what they needed last year. They may not be powerful enough to win this year, but I think they'll maintain most of their side game strength while advancing their YYB record to Tier 1 status. I think DC will look a lot like ACVI/ACV KD this year.
4. Virtupets
They're losing the Stealth AC Group, which will probably reduce their strength this year by a bit, but how many freeloaders will decide to join them? So many people are aware of the Winners' Curse by now that (I believe) its impact will continue to diminish as the years go by. It's entirely possible that VP will end up being similar to their ACV-strength this year, or better. They're a dedicated bunch of players, and they'll do everything they can to prevent a drop. However, considering their size, I wouldn't be too surprised if they fell way down. VP could place in Tier 1, or they could place in Tier 4. Really hard to predict, but I think they'll surprise most people, just like last year. Do not underestimate this team's chances.
Tier 2
Pre-Finals:
Just as a bit of a sidenote, I expect things to be very, very close near the top of the AC. Really, everyone between at least 1st and 7th or so could be bunched extremely close together pre-finals. So those (among others) could go either way (Tier 1 vs. Tier 2)...
5. Krawk Island
If Virtupets had not been essentially unbeatable last year during finals due to their size combined with their strength, Krawk Island would have won its second Altador Cup. (I'm not bitter...) Unfortunately for them, they were unable to beat VP, which will probably end up hurting their chances this year. The 2nd place finish will likely lead even more freeloaders to this team, turning them into what DC was last year. They're already receiving quite a bit of hype, so I suspect that KI could weaken a bit with a new load of freeloaders to deal with. They're still going to be very strong, but with other teams staying strong and smaller/weaker teams becoming more threatening, I think they could miss Tier 1 due to some weaknesses on side games. Still, I think their YYB record will be enough to easily win Tier 2.
6. Meridell
With an exceptional Slushie Slinger record along with strong YYB and SOSD, Meridell felt like a Tier 1 team last year. Alas, they missed it by 8 points -- less than one YYB win -- and won Tier 2 pretty easily. I don't expect them to lose much of their strength from last year, if any, and with a bit of added effort in YYB, they could certainly win this year. They've been a strong team for awhile now, particularly in YYB and SS, and I think they'll continue to be great this year. Still, I think the minor boost in YYB will hurt them a bit in the other games, and I think the added attention they're receiving will cause them to miss Tier 1.
Internal issues have plagued the team before, but it's really not a reliable basis on which to make predictions. If they avoid those this year, they will be tough to beat; if they don't, their chances decline sharply.
7. Roo Island
Last year was quite disappointing for this team, which many expected to take gold last year. The hype may have ultimately led to their downfall, giving them too many freeloaders to be able to win. They were able to overcome this issue in YYB, with a strong record, but their other games suffered greatly. I expect marginal improvement in their records for every game, bringing them up, but not really making them a threat for anything other than perhaps Tier 2 win. They're pretty unpredictable, doing so well in ACV when few expected it, and pretty badly last year based on their predicted results. They could outperform this prediction if they rebuild their core and keep freeloaders away, but I'm not sure if that will happen.
8. Tyrannia
Tyrannia has been an interesting team to watch over the years, with many fans on the outside wondering why they wouldn't focus a bit more on YYB. Last year, they began to do that as the new version of YYB opened things up for a team like theirs. They improved their YYB to basically high Tier 3 levels and managed to keep their sides going strong, which is pretty impressive and kept them competitive, even in Tier 1 for awhile.
This year, if they continue their YYB improvement, I think they could potentially hit Tier 1. No one expects them to lose side game strength, but even if they lose some of that in exchange for further improved YYB, they still might be able to make Tier 1. For now, though, I think think they'll probably narrowly miss it.
Tier 3
Pre-Finals:
9. Brightvale
I'll go ahead and admit that I underestimated this team before, and I'm hoping I'm not going to make that mistake again (especially now that I've moved them up this far). They've got a growing core of players that is able to get them good results against good teams, with consistently strong SS performance. I'm not sure how well their new organization and strategy will translate into standings points, but we'll see what happens. They may be a small group, but they can surprise you. I'm very interested in watching their performance this year. I expect them to be a lot like ACV VP; a little weaker, based on this prediction, but it's certainly progress.
10. Lost Desert
Lost Desert is, like so many other teams, unpredictable; how will they recover from the "Curse?" I settled on this spot for them in the end. They took a HUGE hit after their ACV win, so it's really hard to determine where they might be this year. They lost SOTAC and lots of other All-Stars, and they gained freeloaders, so, assuming they regain a few of those All-Stars and lose most of the freeloaders, where will they be? I certainly don't know, so 10th place seemed like a good spot. I think their YYB will improve enough for them to contend in Tier 3, and perhaps make it back into Tier 2. This is kind of a guess though, obviously. It just doesn't feel right to assume that LD will continue to be a below-average team. :|
11. Shenkuu
The once-feared ninjas have lost their edge. It's not that I expect the team to get worse this year, I just don't know how they're going to get much better. They're not the attractive destination for All-Stars that they used to be, and some internal drama combined with a loss of All-Stars over the years has really crippled them. They're probably not going to lose too many freeloaders -- those that joined them last year presumably weren't expecting to win -- but we'll just have to wait and see what happens. It'll take a lot of work for this team to regain its strength. They could potentially fall further, but I foresee slight improvements for the team, letting them stay .
12. Terror Mountain
3-3-11 is a really disappointing record in YYB, and that's what TM earned in Round 2 last year. Their one win against MD in YYB during the first round of finals last year gives me a bit of hope for them, but I really think they're more likely to be closer to their 3-3-11 record than that win suggests. They'll probably maintain most of their side game strength, but their YYB will almost certainly be worse than last year.
Their sides may make them competitive near the top of Tier 3, but I don't think they'll make it out of here, then they'll end at 12th due to poor YYB in finals. They'll be an interesting team to watch, but I don't think we'll be seeing them in Tier 2 or above.
Tier 4
Pre-Finals:
13. Mystery Island
MI seems to have a lot of fun on the boards, perhaps at the cost of their formerly-great YYB record. Still, they do have some strong players, and it looks like they may make more of an effort this year. They have not been impressive lately, but I would not be surprised to see improvement from them this year. No one's really expecting too much from them, so they could surprise us. I don't expect too much movement in the standings, but I do expect a few more upsets, at least, and a narrow victory over HW in finals.
14. Haunted Woods
Haunted Woods seemed poised for a strong showing last year after it had a good streak going during ACV, but things just didn't quite work out for them. When you're not enjoying an exceptionally good YYB year, you're going to be hurt if you can't avoid draws, which cost you a lot of standing points. With nine draws last year, this is ultimately the reason why they couldn't slip into to Tier 2 -- they were 11 points behind TM after the DRR, so turning two of those nine draws into wins would've put them into the 8th place spot. Unfortunately, I think they'll miss Tier 2 again this year, and will have to fight for the last Tier 3 spot (I think HW/MI/SK/TM/LD could all be pretty close together). They don't really belong in Tier 4, but it seems like at least one "average" team is going to fall down here this year. If a team like TM falls harder, or SK/LD stay around the same strength, HW could sneak into Tier 3 (or maybe they'll surprise me and do better this year regardless). Regardless, I think there's a big dropoff after 14th place.
15. Faerieland
Yes, they're getting better, but they're not really making any moves in YYB, which is what really matters for them. They may be close to reaching Tier 3 when the DRR ends, but their SS or SOSD record by itself will not carry them out of Tier 4 without even more improvement. If they start beating better teams at YYB, rather than picking off side games, they'll be more of a threat to exit this tier... but I'm not going to predict something like that.
16. Kiko Lake
Ah, Kiko Lake. Pretty much a less powerful version of TM in the side games with a worse YYB record. They have potential, but so do many of the other teams ahead of them. I would not be terribly surprised to see them in Tier 3, but it's going to take an even stronger side game record or YYB improvement, and I don't really think that either of those things will happen.
Tier 5
Pre-Finals:
17. Moltara
There's not much I can say about Moltara. I'd say "maybe they'll lose their freeloaders," but that theoretically would've happened last year. It seems like their theme attracts players consistently, but not enough good players to do any damage. They have a bit of potential to surprise from time to time, but that's about it.
18. Altador
Poor Altador. Even with their exceptional SS record, they couldn't get out of the bottom tier. Indeed, they weren't even close. Unfortunately, that 0-0-34 YYB in the DRR kept them in the bottom tier, and their performance over the years doesn't exactly suggest that this will get much better.
Power Rankings
Basically, the degree to which people would say this team is a "powerhouse," in the context of ACVII. Essentially, ratings with a bit of bias towards larger teams and YYB. Just for fun, really. Click an image below to view my explanation for that team's spot.Also, I have it set up in "tiers" (clickable)... The Best and the Biggest, Rising in Power, Strong, but not THAT strong, Stuck in the Middle (maybe), Should/Could Be Better, and The Bottom Four.
The Best and the Biggest
1. Krawk IslandNot as bloated with freeloaders as DC last year, Krawk Island showed its YYB strength and nearly won the tournament. This is the second largest team, significantly better than DC last year, with a much better focus on YYB than DC had... but as I said, I expect DC's size to drop (followed by KI's size increasing), so there could be a bit of a power shift between these two teams. The powerhouse race will be close between these two teams, but I think KI might come out on top.
2. Darigan Citadel
Close behind KI is DC. This team has traditionally been a powerhouse, and this year will be no different. Last year, as I mentioned in my predictions, they were absolutely huge. This year I expect them to be a bit smaller, but to retain most of their ~200 All-Stars. With a bit more focus on YYB, I think this team fits the "powerhouse" definition very well for this upcoming year, with size, power in general, and a focus on YYB.
Rising in Power
3. MaraquaMaraqua should be very strong this year. They're a big team, and they have a lot of power in YYB and across the games, as their record last year proved. Despite having a very good shot at at least Tier 1, they seem to be swimming under the radar for now, which could help or hurt them, I suppose. Regardless, I suspect a slight increase in power for them, and I don't really see many problems with this team.
4. Meridell
I do not think MD qualifies for the Top 3 in "powerhouses" due to their size, primarily. They're a strong YYB team, but their draws against MI/SK/HW/LD and loss against RI (and TM during finals) show that they can be inconsistent, perhaps due to their small size. Regardless, this is a very dangerous team and has to be considered a powerhouse these days.
Strong, but not THAT strong
5. KreludorThis may seem odd, as they've made Tier 1 for several years in a row now, and have "won" the DRR as well. However, I expect KD to drop in power this year. Their YYB has never been the best; last year was their best YYB year (at least somewhat due to SOTAC), and they still placed third. YYB is an important part of being a powerhouse, and I don't think they'll be strong enough to warrant a spot in the Top 4 of this list.
6. Roo Island
Last year was not good for these guys, but they still had a strong YYB record. They're fairly small team that has jumped up and down in the standings several times over the years. Theoretically last year was a down year for them, so perhaps their YYB (at least) will be even better this year, probably giving them a chance at winning Tier 2 if they make it. Not exactly the powerhouse they were from ACI-III, but they're not bad.
7. Virtupets
I don't know how good they'll be this year. Possibly deserving a higher spot, possibly deserving a lower spot. Considering their size, their powerhouse status probably won't be much higher than this, but potentially much lower.
Stuck in the Middle (maybe)
8. TyranniaToo much side gaming to go any higher than this. They're a great team, but not in the right games for me to call the a powerhouse. They're certainly a side game powerhouse, and may continue their YYB improvement.
9. Lost Desert
10. Shenkuu
11. Haunted Woods
It's really pretty much the same story for these three teams. They've been good in the past (LD most recently), but they've had at least one bad/below average year since then. I put them in this order primarily based on the length of time between now and their last good year. LD might bounce back this year, SK seems to me like they'll stay around the same strength, and HW has been pretty consistent in its Tier 3 strength for a while now.
12. Brightvale
I think this team could easily do better than the next 3-5 teams above it. I'm putting them this low because they're a small team without a big number of All-Stars. They could definitely be good this year, but I wouldn't call Brightvale a powerhouse.
Should/Could Be Better
13. Mystery IslandWith more effort this year, they could obviously outperform this ranking and the spot I gave them in my predictions. They'd certainly surprise people if they did that. Regardless, they're a pretty small team, so even if they go back to their Tier 1/2 YYB strength somehow, They'd probably only make it to 6-10 on this particular list.
14. Terror Mountain
Everyone seems to be pretty down on TM after their drama-filled collapse last year. I agree with them. They're tiny, and their 3-3-11 2nd round of YYB gives me no reason to think they'll be much more of a powerhouse than this. Still, the potential is there, if they're still as small as they used to be, I suppose.
The Bottom Four
15. FaerielandFL's probably significantly better than the other three teams in this "tier," but they definitely don't fit the "powerhouse" definition. They are not good at YYB, and they're a perpetually mediocre team. They seem to have found their niche as a good (but not great) SS team, but they're not a threat to suddenly become a powerhouse.
16. Moltara
Only putting them above KL because they're not much worse in YYB, and they're bigger.
17. Kiko Lake
By my count, KL had... three All-Stars? They're an extremely small team. Extremely. And they're not good at YYB.
18. Altador
They're a pretty small team that is horrendously bad at YYB. I don't know how they suddenly starting beating MT in the last two days of finals. These guys are good at SLSL, but they are definitely, definitely not a powerhouse.
