The Food Club Trend Tracker
This chart depicts the winners of each round of Food Club. It is useful for tracking winning or losing streaks and spotting trends. A pirate who wins a round will have two numbers in their cell for that round: the first is the odds at which they won while the second represents their Food Adjustment. For example, if Orvinn's cell reads 13/+4, this means he opened that round at 13:1 odds with a Food Adjustment of +4. The closing odds are not taken into account because they fluctuate depending on how many players bet on a pirate.

Give Stuff a poke to the right to check out the pirates' trends, streaks and win rates. The winners chart is updated daily while the trend investigations are currently based on data from round 7000 to the current round. My aim is to update the investigations every 50 rounds.

You are welcome to use any of the data here for your own investigations or to help you with your bets. Keep in mind we're trying to find order in the chaos of a probability game where no one knows the exact parameters that decide wins, odds or other factors. That means no conclusion here is in any way definite. If you have any questions or suggestions for other features to include, or if you've spotted any interesting trends, feel free to send me a neomail!

Streak Information and Win Rates

Table Information
Goobs Dan Buck Fed Franch Tails Lucky Ed Ned Bonnie Stripey Sprogs Fairfax Beard Peg Puffo Cross Orvinn Squire Stuff
Stren 93 87 89 81 81 81 82 79 79 76 74 73 71 76 73 68 66 52 61 59
Win % 65% 48% 45% 35% 35% 31% 28% 27% 24% 23% 20% 20% 19% 17% 14% 13% 11% 11% 6% 6%
Calc 62% 46% 45% 38% 32% 31% 26% 26% 26% 24% 23% 22% 19% 18% 14% 13% 11% 12% 5% 5%
W-str 15 7 6 7 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 4 2 2 2 1
L-str 5 9 10 18 17 10 14 15 12 17 14 22 19 30 22 33 26 36 41 48

Winners Each Round

Round Goobs Dan Buck Fed Franch Tails Lucky Ed Ned Bonnie Stripey Sprogs Fairfax Beard Pegleg Puffo Cross Orvinn Squire Stuff
7292 2/+1 2/0 3/+3 2/+3 2/+2
7291 2/+1 2/+3 7/+1 11/+2 5/-1
7290 2/+1 2/+3 2/+3 2/+3 12/0
7289 2/+2 2/+1 2/+3 3/0 2/+2
7288 2/0 2/+4 2/+1 2/+1 2/+2
7287 2/+2 2/+6 2/+2 6/+2 3/+1
7286 2/0 2/+3 2/-1 2/+4 5/+2
7285 2/+5 2/+5 2/+1 7/+3 2/+3
7284 2/+1 3/+2 2/+1 8/0 3/+1
7283 3/-1 5/-2 2/0 2/-1 2/+2
7282 2/0 2/+1 2/+2 3/+2 7/+2
7281 3/-3 2/+3 2/+1 2/+1 10/-1
7280 2/+4 2/0 2/0 6/0 13/+2
7279 2/+1 13/-3 2/+2 6/-2 3/-1
7278 2/+1 2/0 2/0 13/-2 4/+1
7277 2/+1 2/+2 2/+6 2/+2 2/+2
7276 2/+1 2/+4 2/+2 4/0 13/-1
7275 2/+1 2/+1 2/+2 6/-1 2/+2
7274 3/+2 13/-3 2/+4 3/0 2/+2
7273 3/0 2/+4 2/+3 2/-1 5/+3
7272 2/0 2/+5 2/+3 10/+1 3/0
7271 2/0 5/+2 2/+2 3/0 13/0
7270 2/+3 2/-1 2/+1 2/+5 7/+1
7269 2/0 2/-1 3/+2 7/+1 3/+4
7268 2/0 2/-1 2/+5 2/+2 2/+1
7267 2/+1 2/+2 2/+3 4/+3 9/-1
7266 2/+3 3/-1 6/+1 2/+2 5/0
7265 2/-2 2/0 8/0 2/+1 7/+2
7264 2/+5 2/-1 3/+5 2/+3 3/+1
7263 2/+2 2/-1 3/+2 2/+1 2/+2
7262 2/0 2/+3 2/+3 2/0 2/0
7261 2/+2 13/-2 3/0 2/+2 4/0
7260 3/-2 9/-3 2/+3 11/-2 3/+2
7259 2/+3 4/+1 2/+1 13/-1 2/+1
7258 2/+1 2/+2 13/0 4/+1 2/0
7257 2/+1 2/0 13/0 2/+2 13/+1
7256 2/+2 2/-1 2/-1 2/0 2/+2
7255 2/+3 5/-2 2/+3 2/+2 10/+4
7254 2/-1 2/+1 2/+1 2/+3 2/0
7253 2/0 2/+4 2/+3 4/0 5/+1
7252 2/+1 2/+6 5/+2 2/+3 13/0
7251 2/-1 6/+1 2/+2 4/+2 2/+2
7250 7/0 2/+2 5/+1 3/+1 13/+2
7249 2/+3 2/0 2/+4 2/+2 5/+2
7248 4/0 2/+2 2/+1 2/+2 2/+3
7247 2/+1 2/+1 2/+4 6/+3 8/-2
7246 2/+2 2/+1 2/+4 5/+1 4/+2
7245 2/+1 2/+1 2/+2 2/+1 11/-1
7244 2/+1 2/+4 2/+3 4/+3 3/0
7243 2/+2 2/+1 2/+2 6/0 3/+3
7242 2/+1 2/-1 2/+5 4/0 2/+6
7241 2/0 4/+2 2/+1 2/+3 3/+1
7240 2/+2 2/+3 4/0 5/0 3/+3
7239 2/-1 4/+4 3/-2 2/+5 3/+1
7238 2/+1 2/0 2/+2 7/0 5/-1
7237 2/-1 4/0 2/+3 8/+3 12/+1
7236 2/+1 2/+1 2/+1 3/+3 2/+2
7235 2/0 2/-1 2/0 7/+1 2/+1
7234 2/+4 2/+3 5/+2 2/+5 10/+3
7233 2/+2 2/-2 2/+1 6/0 4/-2
7232 2/+1 2/+3 2/+1 6/0 2/+3
7231 2/0 4/+1 2/+1 3/+3 4/+2
7230 2/+3 2/+7 2/+3 4/+2 2/+3
7229 2/0 2/0 2/+4 8/+1 6/+1
7228 2/+4 3/-1 3/+3 7/0 7/+3
7227 2/0 2/+2 2/+1 2/+2 9/0
7226 2/+5 2/+5 2/-1 3/+1 2/+2
7225 5/0 2/+2 2/+5 3/+2 9/-1
7224 2/+2 4/-1 10/-2 2/0 5/+2
7223 2/-1 2/+1 2/0 2/+2 2/0
7222 2/+2 2/+6 2/-1 4/+1 4/+2
7221 2/-1 2/+4 2/+3 8/+1 4/+2
7220 2/0 2/-2 3/+1 6/0 6/+2
7219 2/0 2/+3 5/0 4/0 2/+2
7218 2/+1 2/0 3/+2 3/+1 13/+2
7217 2/0 2/+2 2/+1 4/-2 5/0
7216 4/-3 2/+4 7/+2 4/+1 2/+2
7215 2/+1 2/0 2/0 3/+2 2/+3
7214 2/+2 3/+4 8/0 4/+4 13/+1
7213 2/+2 2/+5 2/0 6/-1 6/-1
7212 2/-2 2/+3 2/+4 6/+1 10/+2
7211 2/-1 2/+1 9/-3 2/+3 2/+2
7210 2/+1 2/+4 3/+1 3/0 2/+4
7209 3/+2 2/0 2/+2 13/+1 3/+4
7208 2/+4 2/0 3/+2 5/0 7/+1
7207 2/+1 2/0 6/0 2/+1 3/+2
7206 2/+2 2/+1 2/+1 6/+3 13/+1
7205 3/0 4/0 3/0 3/+1 7/-1
7204 2/0 2/+1 3/-1 4/+3 6/+2
7203 2/+6 2/+2 2/+1 2/+3 13/+2
7202 2/+3 2/+2 2/+1 2/+6 6/+1
7201 2/+2 2/+2 2/+4 3/+2 3/+2
7200 2/0 4/+5 2/+4 2/+5 4/+2
7199 2/0 12/-1 2/+3 2/+3 12/0
7198 2/+3 4/+1 13/-1 2/+2 2/+3
7197 2/+1 2/+1 3/+3 3/0 2/+2
7196 2/+3 3/0 6/+1 2/+2 3/+4
7195 2/+2 2/-1 4/+1 4/+4 13/0
7194 2/+2 2/+4 2/+1 2/0 2/+2
7193 2/+1 2/+1 13/0 2/+1 13/+2
7192 2/+2 2/0 5/+2 3/-1 2/+2
7191 2/+1 2/+2 2/+1 2/+2 8/0
7190 2/+1 2/+2 8/+1 6/+3 2/+3
7189 2/+3 2/+2 2/+5 2/+1 2/+1
7188 5/-2 2/0 2/+4 11/+2 4/+3
7187 2/+5 2/+3 6/-2 2/+2 7/+1
7186 2/+4 2/0 7/+1 4/+3 4/+3
7185 4/-1 4/-2 2/+3 3/+1 7/+2
7184 2/+3 2/+4 2/+2 2/+4 2/+4
7183 2/+3 2/0 2/0 2/+4 9/+1
7182 2/-2 2/0 2/+1 7/+2 6/+3
7181 2/+1 4/+3 2/+1 5/+2 3/+4
7180 2/-1 2/+1 2/+3 2/+2 4/+1
7179 2/+1 2/+3 2/0 2/-2 9/0
7178 2/+1 2/+1 2/+5 13/+1 11/-2
7177 2/+1 4/0 2/+5 2/0 3/+2
7176 2/-2 2/+1 4/0 4/-1 3/+3
7175 3/-2 2/+3 5/-1 4/0 2/+2
7174 5/+1 2/+2 2/+1 3/+1 13/+1
7173 2/+2 2/+2 2/+3 2/0 4/+3
7172 11/-2 2/-1 2/0 13/+1 2/+1
7171 2/0 4/+2 2/+1 4/+2 6/0
7170 2/0 2/+2 9/+1 3/-2 5/+2
7169 2/-1 2/0 2/+1 2/+1 12/-1
7168 2/+3 2/+1 11/-1 4/+2 9/+3
7167 2/+2 4/-3 2/0 2/+2 3/+3
7166 2/+1 2/+3 2/+4 2/+4 5/+1
7165 2/+4 2/-1 4/+1 4/-1 2/+4
7164 2/+1 5/+3 2/+1 3/+2 8/+1
7163 2/+2 2/0 2/+4 3/+2 13/+2
7162 2/+1 2/+7 2/+1 2/+1 2/+1
7161 2/+2 2/0 5/-2 2/+1 2/+2
7160 2/+2 2/+3 3/0 7/+2 6/+2
7159 2/-1 3/+4 2/0 2/-1 7/+4
7158 2/0 2/0 2/+4 2/0 2/+3
7157 2/-1 4/+2 4/+1 6/0 3/+4
7156 2/+3 2/+1 13/-1 3/0 9/0
7155 2/0 2/0 2/+1 2/+1 2/+2
7154 2/+2 2/0 3/0 2/+1 2/+3
7153 2/+2 3/-1 2/+1 2/+4 6/+2
7152 3/-1 4/+3 5/-1 9/0 2/+3
7151 2/+4 2/+2 5/+1 3/+1 6/0
7150 2/+1 5/+1 5/0 2/+1 4/+1
7149 2/+4 2/+1 13/0 6/+1 11/0
7148 2/0 2/-1 2/+1 7/+1 13/0
7147 2/+3 2/+1 2/+5 5/+5 3/+2
7146 2/+2 3/-2 2/0 9/-1 7/-1
7145 2/0 2/0 2/+1 3/+3 13/0
7144 2/-2 4/+1 3/+3 3/+1 5/0
7143 2/0 3/+3 3/+1 4/+1 3/+2
7142 2/-2 2/+2 2/-1 7/-1 4/+3
7141 2/+4 2/+4 3/-1 4/-1 4/+5
7140 2/+2 2/+2 2/+5 6/+2 4/+2
7139 2/+2 2/+6 2/+3 5/+3 4/+1
7138 3/-1 2/0 5/+1 9/+1 5/+3
7137 2/+4 4/+3 2/+2 3/0 5/+5
7136 2/+2 2/+3 2/+5 2/+2 2/+5
7135 2/+1 2/+4 2/+3 4/+5 6/0
7134 2/+2 3/+2 5/+4 8/0 10/+2
7133 2/+1 2/0 2/+4 2/-1 2/+1
7132 2/+2 2/+2 2/+2 3/+2 2/+5
7131 2/+1 2/-1 2/-1 2/+6 13/+2
7130 2/+2 2/-2 2/+4 6/+2 2/+2
7129 2/+1 2/+4 3/+2 2/+1 6/+1
7128 3/+1 6/+4 4/+5 3/+3 4/+1
7127 2/+2 2/+3 4/+3 2/+1 4/+5
7126 4/+2 2/+1 2/+1 4/+1 13/0
7125 2/+3 2/+1 2/+6 13/0 3/+3
7124 2/+2 3/+2 2/0 2/+4 5/+1
7123 2/+1 2/0 2/+2 2/+2 8/+1
7122 2/0 2/+2 2/+1 2/+5 13/0
7121 2/+3 2/+4 13/-1 5/+1 8/+1
7120 2/+2 12/-2 2/+2 2/-1 12/+3
71192/+12/02/+12/+111/+3
71182/+12/-15/-18/+22/+3
71172/+13/+23/+213/-110/+1
711613/-15/+25/+18/+24/+1
71152/+26/+22/03/-16/0
71142/02/+32/-14/+25/+1
71132/+13/+42/+17/-113/0
71122/+22/+13/-12/+24/+2
71112/02/+12/+36/+15/+4
71102/02/+22/02/+23/2
71092/+12/+42/-13/+110/+1
71082/+12/+52/+32/+313/-2
71074/03/+24/+23/+310/+1
71062/02/-12/+26/+13/0
71052/+22/+22/+35/+213/-1
71042/+22/+13/08/+213/-1
71032/+22/+62/+23/03/+5
71022/32/08/-110/05/+3
71012/+45/03/02/013/-1
71002/+12/+42/+32/+43/+2
70992/+32/+22/+13/+44/+3
70982/+52/-12/+15/+32/+4
70972/+42/+13/-16/+413/0
70962/-12/+44/+22/+26/+2
70952/+12/+32/+54/03/+4
70942/-12/+16/+13/+37/-1
70933/02/+42/+13/+12/+2
70923/+42/-12/+44/03/0
70912/+67/-12/-12/+313/+6
70902/+22/+12/+12/+23/+1
70892/04/-24/02/+48/+2
70882/+12/-12/07/+15/0
70872/02/+22/+22/+23/+4
70862/02/+32/+32/011/+3
70852/+32/+53/+25/+33/-1
70842/+42/-12/03/+110/0
70832/+32/+42/04/-12/+2
70825/-23/-15/06/-213/0
70812/+22/-13/-14/+15/0
7080 2/+32/+32/+26/+33/+3
70792/02/+33/+112/+38/+1
70782/+23/+22/+13/+42/+4
70772/02/+62/+53/02/+2
70762/+22/+24/+13/+25/+4
70752/+32/+32/+29/+36/+2
70742/+12/+32/012/05/0
70732/+12/+12/+17/+18/+2
70722/07/-13/03/+32/+3
70713/+44/+12/+14/04/+1
70703/+22/02/+34/+213/-3
70692/+12/+15/+23/+413/+2
70682/+22/02/+22/+33/0
70672/+22/-14/+210/+210/+1
70662/+24/02/+12/+24/+1
70652/+73/+27/05/+22/0
70642/-23/02/+42/06/+3
70632/-12/+42/+28/08/+2
70622/+22/02/+23/+213/+1
70614/+42/08/09/+211/+1
70602/+22/+12/013/07/+1
70592/+13/+37/+22/+24/+2
70582/+22/+32/02/+12/+3
70572/+32/+310/+23/+23/+2
70562/+32/+66/02/+44/+0
70552/+42/+43/-13/-23/+1
70542/-12/+13/+33/+24/+5
70532/+12/+72/+12/+52/+2
70522/+22/+12/+12/06/-1
70512/+36/+16/+27/+510/-1
70502/02/+22/+42/03/0
70499/-12/+14/+312/+210/0
70482/+22/02/+12/+48/+1
70472/+22/+32/+32/+210/-1
70462/+12/+45/-14/+46/0
70452/+13/-22/+310/+413/+2
70442/+22/+24/-22/+32/+1
70432/+43/+33/07/+22/+2
70422/+12/+42/+22/+13/+1
70412/+15/04/+313/04/-1
70402/+12/+47/+34/+37/-2
70392/+32/+42/+24/+15/+1
70382/-22/+24/-13/+57/+2
70372/+32/02/03/+24/+1
70362/+32/+22/+32/04/-1
70352/+12/+32/02/+35/+2
70342/+12/+22/+52/+23/+3
70332/+24/+23/+113/+14/+2
70322/+42/+33/+310/+113/+1
70312/+22/+22/06/+113/+1
70302/+22/+22/03/-12/+4
70292/-22/+65/+14/08/+2
70282/+12/02/-18/+34/0
70272/+42/+39/+14/+29/+3
70262/+33/+23/+22/02/+4
70252/+12/+32/+63/+22/0
70246/-12/+42/+32/+22/0
70232/+22/+12/+33/+34/+3
70222/+12/02/02/+111/-2
70212/+75/+113/+48/-14/+3
70202/+32/+13/05/-13/+2
70192/-12/04/012/-15/+4
70189/-24/+26/+213/+212/-1
70172/+22/+12/08/+313/+1
70162/+22/+63/02/+13/0
70152/+12/+45/-12/+35/+5
70142/-111/-32/+42/+513/+2
70133/+12/+26/+12/+32/+3
70122/+15/+13/+22/+26/+4
70112/+12/+34/+14/+26/0
70102/-17/+12/013/-12/+2
70092/+22/+52/-12/+12/+5
70082/+22/02/012/013/+1
70072/+22/+13/+12/+15/+1
70062/+12/02/+52/-13/+1
70052/+32/03/+12/+32/+2
70042/-12/+32/+22/+410/-1
70032/+14/-14/02/+18/-1
70022/+32/+45/-13/02/+1
70012/+22/+22/02/+12/+5
70002/+22/+13/-23/03/+1

Streak and Win Rate Information

The Streak Information and Win Rates table is based on 290 rounds' worth of data from 7000 to the current round. This data is updated every ten rounds.


Winning FA and Odds Investigation

I've compiled the information from the Winner's Chart into graphs to spot any trends, surprises or propensities. The red graphs represent the percentage of rounds each pirate has won at every FA while the blue graphs represent the percentage of rounds he has won at specific odds. I've summarized the results beside each graph, both individually and in connection with each other. You are free to interpret the trends in other ways, especially in conjunction with aspects that I haven't factored in. I've considered FA, Odds and Strength. Individual allergies and favourites, streaks, weight and other aspects are not factored in. Streaks can only be relied upon for specific rounds at specific times, while I don't believe weight affects much. There are heavy pirates on both ends of the spectrum, from Goobs and Tails on one end to Peg and Stuff on the other. I think weight is more species-specific; dragons and dinos weigh more than lizards and frogs.

The data here only tracks the FAs at which the pirates won; it doesn't log how many times they lost with those same FAs or compare that with other factors like who they were up against and what their FAs and odds were. That would be a massive undertaking! The data only starts at round 7000 so any conclusions we make do have margin for error, but at least there is a good sampling of rounds here to get us started. Pirates who win less often have more margin for error than those who win more frequently as there is less data to go on.

You might want to zoom in a bit for best readability!
Gooblah wins often and does best when his FA is in the 0 to +2 range. Almost 60% of his wins have been in this range. As the strongest pirate, he probably doesn't need super-high FAs to give him an edge. Goobs wins 99% of his matches at 2:1 and the other 1% at 3:1. I'd give some sage advice about not bothering to safety him when he's above 3:1, but if that's ever happened before, I'll eat my captain's hat.
Dan has won at some pretty high FAs, and his peak range is about +2 to +4. Almost 15% of his wins were at FAs of +5 or higher. As one of the strongest pirates, I theorize that a high FA helps him win against similarly strong pirates like Goobs and Buck. A great FA can't affect odds that are (more often than not) already 2:1, but could give him the edge he needs against strong pirates even though their odds are the same. Dan's a regular 2:1 guy, although once in a while he does appear at a variety of odds, including 13:1. The graph is a bit too small to show it but he does have 1% of his wins each at 4, 5, and 6:1. He's worth a safety at whatever odds you see him.
Buck sort of breaks the high-FA-gives-an-edge theory. His peak FA is a neutral 0 and he's pulled off almost 60% of his wins at 0 FA or lower! In the rounds tracked, he's never won at anything above +3. When Buck is at a negative FA, don't count him out. It's possible his strength makes up for his picky eating. Buck also appears at a variety of odds. Although 80% of his wins are at 2:1, the other 20% can be very profitable indeed. We know FAs are calculated into the starting odds, so a negative FA for Buck could put him at something non-2:1 (and thus more profitable for you) even though he's not really at the kind of disadvantage you'd expect.
Fed's won 70% of his rounds at 2:1 but is often seen at a variety of odds. As one of the stronger pirates, even a poor FA and other factors that relegate him to very high odds may not be enough stop him from winning. Fed is another pirate who does well at higher FAs, though he has won a scant few rounds in the negatives. Over 40% of his wins were around +3 to +4, with the 0 to +2 making up another 45%. He's a good overall positive guy.
Franch and Fed share similar FA trends - it's all the family, I guess! Like Fed, Franch does well in the positive 0 to +4 range, with his highest number of wins at +4. Also like his brother, he's had about 5% of his wins in the negatives and about 10% at +5 or higher. Franch is copying his brother in terms of odds as well. I wonder if Fed ever gets annoyed.
Tailhook is an all-around steady pirate when he's at an FA of -1 to +2 inclusive. That seems to be his sweet-spot range. He's picked up a tiny smattering of wins at -2 and above +2, but higher FAs don't seem to favour him. Maybe he gets so excited by all those favourite foods that he overeats and passes out at the table. At this point in the pirate spectrum we see the 2:1 win percentages start to fall more sharply and the wins at other odds increase. Tails wins most of his rounds at 2:1 as expected, but he's a good bet if he's in the 3-5:1 range too. His chosen range of FAs fits well to give him those kinds of odds.
I call him Lucky Seven since he's the seventh winningest pirate. He's got a nice little upward trend with a peak at an FA of +1, at which he's earned almost 40% of his wins. He's done a bit better at FAs below that than those in the positives. I guess he's called "Lucky" for a reason. Lucky's odds graph is eerily similar to Franch's. Both just under 70% at 2:1 with almost the same percentages at odds in the 3-6:1 range. Maybe he's actually a long-lost Corvallio who was dropped off at the wharf at birth ugly-duckling style because he wasn't a Techo like his brothers. If that was the case, he'd have to be one pretty lucky Kyrii to get to where he is today... Anyway, with Lucky's trend towards neutral FAs, don't count him out if you see him at higher odds with the food adjustments he favours.
Ed's got a pretty steady little mountain-looking trend. Over 70% of his wins occurred when his FA was in the 0 to +2 range. If he's got an extreme FA one way or the other, maybe it's a sign that you don't need as many safeties as you think. I'm surprised fruit isn't one of his favourites, considering the amount of time he spends ogling trees. Maybe he prefers conifers. Aside from the usual increased wins at 2 and 3:1, Ed's won fairly evenly at most of the other odds. His FA mountain means a negative or neutral FA is likely to start him at higher odds without putting him at too much of a disadvantage. Even a +1 FA may not see him at 2:1 considering the number of stronger and better pirates he could be matched up against. If he's at middling odds facing someone like Blackbeard, though, he's worth at least a couple of bets to cover him.
Ned's another pirate who seems to thrive under pressure and do well at negative FAs. He does just as well at positive ones too, but with 20% of his wins each at -1, +1 and +2, don't count him out when you see that negative sign. Ned wins 80% of his matches in the 2-4:1 range. Those negative FAs he likes, coupled with his middling strength, likely lead to him opening at those lower but non-2:1 odds. It just increases our profit, though! If you see him at 3 or 4:1, he's just as gluttonous as he'd be at minimal odds.
Bonnie... Okay, who names their son Bonnie? Poor kid must have been teased all through his childhood and turned to a life of pirating because he was laughed out of every other legitimate job. Anyway, Bonnie peaks at a +2 FA with almost 30% of her - er, his - wins there. Bonnie lies at the halfway point of the pirate spectrum. You see more wins at non-2:1 odds from here on out. There are no odds Bonnie has not won at. Added together, he's won about 65% of his rounds in the 3-6:1 range while only 30% of his wins were at 2:1. There are now so many pirates above him at this point that the number of times he starts out at 2:1 is lower as well. Bonnie's frequent middling-odds wins could just be a result of simple logic and his situation.
It makes sense why the the other pirates call him Ol' Stripey. Not the Stripey part; I have no idea where that comes from. I mean the Old part. From the looks of it, he needs a little bit of positive encouragement in the form of his favourite foods to win. He's grabbed a few negative wins, but the bulk of his victories are very much positive, including 20% at +4 or higher. Odds-wise, Stripey does well in the 3-6:1 range, with 45% of his wins there. The high FAs he favours are often enough to start him at low or middling odds and give him the edge he needs, but he's also won with high FAs at higher odds too. Bottom line: when you see Stripey in the positives and with low to middling odds, he's a contender.
Young Sproggie clearly gets very excited when his favourite foods are served and sprogs into action, devouring them quickly. No, "sprogs" isn't a word but what else comes to mind when you hear his name and see that Meerca bouncing on his tail? Like Stripey, Sproggie does best at positive FAs. Odds-wise, he has a nice little downhill trend into a valley, then a surprising slight uphill at the end. With odds of 7-11:1 he doesn't have very many wins, but at 12 or 13:1 he's got over 10% of his victories. Sprogs does best in the 2-5:1 range. The strong positive FAs he favours likely aid in adjusting his odds into this range as well. As for those 13:1 wins, it likely depends on who he's up against. If Goobs and Dan are in his arena, he could have +4 and still be stuck at 13:1 simply because he's that much weaker.
Fairfax has never won at a negative FA in all the rounds this data is based on. He seems to need that positivity in order to best the often-stronger pirates he's fighting against. He doesn't shy away with high FAs. If you see him in the negatives he's probably already at 13:1 anyway, but the data is something to consider when you're deciding who to safety. It's easier to talk about Fairfax's odds wins in groups. He's got about 50% of his wins at 2 or 3:1 and 40% anywhere from 4-8:1. 8:1 odds are actually his third highest type of odds he wins at. Like Sproggie, Fairfax's propensity for wins at almost exclusively positive FAs would make sense if those FAs are adjusting his natural odds to open slightly lower.
Blackbeard overwhelmingly wins within a small FA range, most popularly +1 and +2. He's picked up a few wins in the negatives, though anything above +3 slows him down. He's an admiral so I imagine he already gets served the finest cuts of meat and choicest produce on his fancy ship, so the prospect of many especially tasty treats doesn't have the same effect on him as the other pirates. He's content with a couple of nice foods and he will dutifully eat the rest. Blackbeard is the first pirate on the spectrum who wins more often at odds other than 2:1. He's actually twice as likely to win at 3:1 than 2:1. A smattering of wins in the 6-9:1 range support the FAs he favours as those FAs aren't likely to make too much of a difference when factored into the opening odds.
(Un)affectionately known as Pig, this pirate is more annoyingly mystifying than anything. With his strength on the lower end, you'd think he'd need a lot of favourite foods to give him an edge, but he seems to thrive when facing obstacles rather than delicacies. He's won 30% of his rounds at +1 and another 40+% at -1 or 0. He can strike from anywhere at any FA. Pig is wildly unpredictable and you can see that from his odds graph: everything from 2-8:1 hits around the 10% mark. Pig seems to favour 5:1 odds, which seems really random but I have a theory. He insists on counting his wooden leg among the rest of his limbs. Including his prehensile trunk, that makes five limbs and therefore he tries his hardest at 5:1 odds to prove he can do anything he was able to do before he got his pegleg. Now I feel guilty for calling him Pig.
Puffo is everything Pig isn't. He's low on strength so it makes sense that he wins when his FAs are high. His peak range is from 0 to +3 with 15-20% of his wins at each, but he's also done very well with FAs of +4 and +5. Puffo and those below him have a distinct likelihood of winning at 13:1 odds. He's won rounds at all the odds in range, but aside from favouring 4:1 odds more than any other (darn, I can't make a comment about the symbolism of his five bows), Puffo's next highest winning odds are tied between 2:1 and 13:1. Complete opposites! He's got a nice little row of 5% wins in middling odds, but let's consider what being at the end of the spectrum means: he's won fewer rounds than the pirates above him, so each round starts to count for multiple percentage points.
Crossblades does his best in the +2 to +3 range. Being in the negatives doesn't do him much good since he's so weak compared to the other pirates. He's won 40% of his rounds at +2.Cross is the second pirate whose second-favoured odds are at 13:1. He does well at either 2:1 or 13:1 with mediocre results elsewhere. He's definitely capable of winning across the gamut, and more probably when those positive FAs he likes allows him to open lower than he normally would. An interesting thing I've noticed is that he's got quite a few back-to-back or almost-so wins before embarking on the next loss streak. Nothing to quantify and investigate yet but something to keep in mind.
Orvinn is the weakest pirate strength-wise. In the rounds being tracked, he's never won at a negative FA. Like Crossblades (They're both blue Bruces - long lost brothers, perhaps?), Orvinn he does his best at +2, though he excels with much higher FAs as well. Orvinn's winningest odds are 13:1, though he's done well at 3-7:1 too; likely those high FAs he favours help him open at lower odds. Streaks might come into play a bit as well; a huge losing streak might have an impact on his likelihood to win, even at 13:1 Keep an eye out for a 13:1 Orvinn with an FA of +2 or higher. If he looks like he needs a win, he's worth a safety if you can fit him into your set. Hmmm, Orvinn's lost his traditional red Bruce bow. Maybe Puffo will give him one of his so I can expound on that symbolism after all.
Whenever I hear Squire's full name I think of venerable and vulnerable. I don't know about the venerable part; you can't get much respect when you lose as often as Squire does. Which makes the vulnerable part pretty much on point. Squire's trend is stable. He's won about the same number of rounds at -1, 0 and +1. Nothing below that and nothing above it. Keep in mind he doesn't have as many rounds of data as most of the other pirates. Squire does his best at 13:1, and those neutral FAs he likes makes a win by him quite unexpected since there's nothing about him that suggests he's likely to pull an upset. Thankfully you've studied his trends and are now prepared!
Stuff-a-Roo, the least winningest pirate in the tavern, has a surprising win rate of 45% at 0 or negative FAs. He does well with the positive range as well, though never above +3 in all the rounds being investigated. My theory is that he's trying to lose weight and has a lot of self-control when he sees a ton of favourite foods, prompting him to slow down at super-high FAs.Stuff was born to pull off upsets. Over 50% of his wins have been at 13:1 starting odds. Like Squire, he's deceptive in that he's more likely than other pirates to pull an unexpected upset. On the other hand, with his long losing streaks it's hard to pinpoint exactly when that win he's due for is coming, and very easy to ignore him in favour of the other pirates.

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