
My Food Club Bets for Round 5760 / February 10, 2015
DISCLAIMER:
I put these bets online for everyone, to use however they see fit.
I do not guarantee a profit if you choose to use them.
If the bets lose, it's *your* Neopoints down the drain.
If the bets win, It's *your* Neopoints to bring to the bank, or to spend however you see fit.
Using these bets does not put you under any obligation to thank, reward, or even pay (*) me.
(*) Gifting is allowed on Neopets, but paying for services is not.
Please don't put your and my!! account at risk by crossing this line!
First a heads up.
You may have noticed that I have been betting at odd times, or even missing days.
This is because of a personal situation.
I try to return to regular betting,
but I can at this time not guarantee anything.
I missed betting yesterday.
Looking at the odds, I would probably have followed my system,
which would have resulted in breaking even (10:10)  so nothing lost, nothing gained.
The day before yesterday, I made 12:10.
Treasure Island and Harpoon Harry's open positive today;
I play both.
Two standard safeties,
boosters on all in Lagoon and all except Stuff in Hidden Cove,
and the 4:1 base bet.
Boring, but hopefully effective.
Current Bets  
Round  Bet Info  Amount  Odds  Winnings 
5760  Lagoon: Fairfax the Deckhand Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  12:1  68616 NP 
5760  Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade  5718 NP  8:1  45744 NP 
5760  Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Hidden Cove: Lucky McKyriggan Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  12:1  68616 NP 
5760  Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Hidden Cove: Orvinn the First Mate Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  20:1  114360 NP 
5760  Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Hidden Cove: The Tailhook Kid Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  8:1  45744 NP 
5760  Treasure Island: Ned the Skipper Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  12:1  68616 NP 
5760  Lagoon: Puffo the Waister Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  12:1  68616 NP 
5760  Lagoon: Bonnie Pip Culliford Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  8:1  45744 NP 
5760  Lagoon: Peg Leg Percival Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  32:1  182976 NP 
5760  Treasure Island: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl  5718 NP  4:1  22872 NP 
Total Possible Winnings  731904 NP 
Odds may change over the day. The listed odds are what they were at the time I updated the page.
Don't like my bets? Try someone else's.
A lot of people publish their bets and/or guides similar likes these.
Most of them follow different strategies,
and those that have a similar strategy still often make different choices.
Morris has compiled a list of Food Club bettor pages.
So if you want to try someone else's bets, that page should be your first stop.
Some other Food Club related links:
Food Club main page
Revenge's Food Club guide
Sirhatter's betting guide
Food Club Monthly Competition
My betting system
The bets I made are based on a method I started using in september 2010.
This method has proved itself to be better than the method I used before,
and lots better than my first attempts to outsmart the system.
Many thanks go to sirhatter. His betting guide has helped me make lots of neopoints,
until I found a way to improve upon his method.
Without sirhatter, this guide would never have existed.
What odds to use?
The odds for the various pirates change throughout the day.
Many people have different theories about the relevance of opening odds, movements, and closing odds.
My theory is that the opening odds are determined by the Neopets computer, based on their actual chances of winning,
and that movements throughout the day are caused by players' actions:
if a lot of players bet a pirate his odds go up;
if almost noone includes him, his odds go down.
Since I consider the opening odds to best reflect the actual chances,
these are the odds I always use when picking my bets.
Calculating value
The first step in my betting system is to calculate the value for each of the five arenas.
The value is found by converting the listed odds to percentage values, adding those percentage values,
and subtracting the total from 100%.
For example, suppose the pirates in an arena are listed as 2:1, 6:1, 8:1 and 13:1.
Converting to percentages yields 50%, 16.67%, 12.5%, and 7.69%; a total of 86.86%.
The value of this arena is 13.14% (100%  86.86%).
Choosing bets
The next step is to count the number of arenas with a positive value,
since the bets to be made depend on the number of positive values.
If there are no arenas with a positive value:
In this case, I don't bet at all.
There are people who will bet, and some will even make nice wins.
But in my experience, you'll lose more neopoints than you win in the long run,
so the winning strategy is not to bet if no arenas have a positive value.
If there is one arena with a positive value:
In the positive value arena, find the pirate with the 2:1 odds.
(There should always be exactly one).
I will make ten bets (the maximum), all on this pirate + one other pirate.
Here's how to find the ten pirates to include in these bets are:
If there are two arenas with a positive value:
Let's call the arenas with a positive value X and Y.
You place ten bets, as follows:
If there are three arenas with a positive value:
If one of the three arenas has a very small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value
(using the two arenas with the highest values).
If all three arenas have at least a decent positive value, or if you decide to take a bit more risk (and maybe win a bit more),
then you can play the full three arenas.
Let's call the arenas with a positive value X, Y, and Z.
You place ten bets, as follows:
If there are four arenas with a positive value:
This is extremely rare  and offers a very good chance to make lots of neopoints!
If two of the four arenas have an extremely small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value
(using the two arenas with the highest values).
If one of the four arenas has smallish positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for three arenas with a positive value
(using the three arenas with the highest values).
If all four arenas have a very high value (20% or better), you can choose to go "all in" on the 2:1 pirates from these arenas:
If all five arenas have a positive value:
This is an extremely rare scenario.
I have seen it happen  but only once or twice in more than a year of playing almost every day!
Anyway, if it does happen, then the method is similar to the fourarena scenario above.
There are two alternative strategies, though.
The first one can be used if all five arenas have an extremely high value:
Final note
I consider the above system as a guideline.
I usually end up betting according to this system, but I also always check strength and food adjustment of the pirates in each arena.
Sometimes I end up deviating from the method described above.
In some cases, this has made me more money, or reduced my loss.
In other cases, it has cost me money.
And remember, Food Club is a gambling game.
No matter how smart your system, you will always have days, sometimes even weeks, where you win nothing.
Don't worry, just keep on playing.
My statistics (see below) prove that in the long run, I come out ahead.
Statistics
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