Hugo's Food Club page



My Food Club Bets for Round 5633 / September 17, 2014

WARNING: the move from DST to normal time has caused the timing of Food Club to be glitched.
The gates close at the normal time (1:45pm - 2:15 pm NST), but the results of the match can already be seen as of approximately 1:00pm NST.
In the 12:55pm - 1:45pm NST time frame, bets can be made on the new match, but this is known to occasionally cause glitches.
My recommendation is to only bet before 12:55pm NST or after 2:15pm NST.
(Collecting winnings before 1:45pm NST is safe).
DISCLAIMER:
I put these bets online for everyone, to use however they see fit.
I do not guarantee a profit if you choose to use them.
If the bets lose, it's *your* Neopoints down the drain. If the bets win, It's *your* Neopoints to bring to the bank, or to spend however you see fit.
Using these bets does not put you under any obligation to thank, reward, or even pay (*) me.
(*) Gifting is allowed on Neopets, but paying for services is not. Please don't put your -and my!!- account at risk by crossing this line!

Both Lagoon and Harpoon Harry's were upset today, so I lost with both my system's bets and my actual bets.
With this set of winners, I expect very few winners today!

Shipwreck and Treasure Island open positive today; Shipwreck looks okay to me, but Treasure Island does not. I think Bonnie Pip has better chances than his odds suggest, so I do not dare to play that arena.
On the other hand, Lagoon opens negative but has, in my opinion, a very strong candidate. Buck looks a lot better then Fairfax - the +4 food adjustment for Fairfax is big, but not enough to overcome the 18 point strength gap.
I decided to play the two-arena system on Shipwreck and Lagoon, ignoring all the good advice my system gives me. This results in three "standard" safeties, plus boosters on all in Harpoon Harry's and all except Squire in Hidden Cove.
My system's bets would be to ten-bet Gooblah, combining him with all in Harpoon Harry's, all except Squire in Hidden Cove, and all except Stuff in Treasure Island.

Current Bets
Round Bet Info Amount Odds Winnings
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
5426 NP 10:1 54260 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Harpoon Harry's: Puffo the Waister
5426 NP 8:1 43408 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Harpoon Harry's: Orvinn the First Mate
5426 NP 20:1 108520 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Harpoon Harry's: Admiral Blackbeard
5426 NP 12:1 65112 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco Corvallio
5426 NP 20:1 108520 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Hidden Cove: Lucky McKyriggan
5426 NP 16:1 86816 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio
5426 NP 16:1 86816 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
Hidden Cove: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5426 NP 8:1 43408 NP
5633 Shipwreck: Gooblah the Grarrl
Lagoon: Fairfax the Deckhand
5426 NP 4:1 21704 NP
5633 Shipwreck: The Tailhook Kid
Lagoon: Buck Cutlass
5426 NP 12:1 65112 NP
Total Possible Winnings 683676 NP

Odds may change over the day. The listed odds are what they were at the time I updated the page.


Don't like my bets? Try someone else's.
A lot of people publish their bets and/or guides similar likes these. Most of them follow different strategies, and those that have a similar strategy still often make different choices.
Morris has compiled a list of Food Club bettor pages. So if you want to try someone else's bets, that page should be your first stop.

Some other Food Club related links:
Food Club main page
Revenge's Food Club guide
Sirhatter's betting guide
Food Club Monthly Competition


My betting system

The bets I made are based on a method I started using in september 2010. This method has proved itself to be better than the method I used before, and lots better than my first attempts to outsmart the system.
Many thanks go to sirhatter. His betting guide has helped me make lots of neopoints, until I found a way to improve upon his method.
Without sirhatter, this guide would never have existed.

What odds to use?

The odds for the various pirates change throughout the day. Many people have different theories about the relevance of opening odds, movements, and closing odds.
My theory is that the opening odds are determined by the Neopets computer, based on their actual chances of winning, and that movements throughout the day are caused by players' actions: if a lot of players bet a pirate his odds go up; if almost noone includes him, his odds go down.
Since I consider the opening odds to best reflect the actual chances, these are the odds I always use when picking my bets.

Calculating value

The first step in my betting system is to calculate the value for each of the five arenas. The value is found by converting the listed odds to percentage values, adding those percentage values, and subtracting the total from 100%.
For example, suppose the pirates in an arena are listed as 2:1, 6:1, 8:1 and 13:1. Converting to percentages yields 50%, 16.67%, 12.5%, and 7.69%; a total of 86.86%.
The value of this arena is 13.14% (100% - 86.86%).

Choosing bets

The next step is to count the number of arenas with a positive value, since the bets to be made depend on the number of positive values.

If there are no arenas with a positive value:

In this case, I don't bet at all.
There are people who will bet, and some will even make nice wins. But in my experience, you'll lose more neopoints than you win in the long run, so the winning strategy is not to bet if no arenas have a positive value.

If there is one arena with a positive value:

In the positive value arena, find the pirate with the 2:1 odds. (There should always be exactly one). I will make ten bets (the maximum), all on this pirate + one other pirate.

Here's how to find the ten pirates to include in these bets are:

  1. Start with the remaining arena with the highest value. (Since the remaining arenas have negative values, remember that -2.5% is higher then -14.8%!).
    Use all pirates from this arena, except those that have 13:1 odds. (The reason why I omit 13:1 pirates is that their real odds might be much worse. The Food Club never goes below 13:1, but the actual odds may be worse - and an actual win chance of (for instance) 25:1 with a payout of only 13:1 is terrible value. Sometimes, the strength and food adjustments of pirates indicate that it might be a "real" 13:1; in those cases, I do include the 13:1 pirate in these bets).
  2. Repeat the previous step until you have exhausted the ten bets.

Note that you must include all pirates from at least one arena. If all the arenas with "high" negative value have one or two 13:1 pirates, then you must either use a different arena, or include the 13:1 pirates from one arena (check strength and food adjustment to find one that is at least close to a "real" 13:1).

If there are two arenas with a positive value:

Let's call the arenas with a positive value X and Y.
You place ten bets, as follows:

  1. One bet on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with the 2:1 pirate from Y;
  2. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
  3. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
  4. All remaining bets are "booster bets" on three pirates: the two 2:1 pirates from X and Y plus one pirate from one of the three remaining arenas.
    The choice of the third pirate in the booster bets is similar to the choice for finding the second pirate in the section for one positive value above.
    One extra guideline is that the single 4:1 bet on the two 2:1 pirates may be replaced by a booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets. To make this happen, I sometimes include a 13:1 pirate in my set of booster bets.

If there are three arenas with a positive value:

If one of the three arenas has a very small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If all three arenas have at least a decent positive value, or if you decide to take a bit more risk (and maybe win a bit more), then you can play the full three arenas.
Let's call the arenas with a positive value X, Y, and Z.
You place ten bets, as follows:

  1. Three bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y, from X and Z, and from Y and Z;
  2. One bet on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z;
  3. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Z;
  4. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
  5. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from Y and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
  6. All remaining bets (if there are any) are "booster bets" on four pirates: the three 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z, combined with one pirate from one of the two remaining arenas.
    The choice of the fourth pirate in the remaining bets is similar to the choice for finding the third pirate in the section for two positive values above. This also includes the option to replace the single 8:1 bets on the three 2:1 pirates with an extra booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets.

If there are four arenas with a positive value:

This is extremely rare - and offers a very good chance to make lots of neopoints!

If two of the four arenas have an extremely small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If one of the four arenas has smallish positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for three arenas with a positive value (using the three arenas with the highest values).
If all four arenas have a very high value (20% or better), you can choose to go "all in" on the 2:1 pirates from these arenas:

  1. Four bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from each possible combination of three of the positive value arenas;
  2. Six bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates each possible combination of two of the positive value arenas.

If all five arenas have a positive value:

This is an extremely rare scenario. I have seen it happen - but only once or twice in more than a year of playing almost every day!
Anyway, if it does happen, then the method is similar to the four-arena scenario above.
There are two alternative strategies, though. The first one can be used if all five arenas have an extremely high value:

  1. Five bets on four 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of four arenas).
  2. Five bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every arena in three of these five bets, or using the highest value arenas more often).
  3. Optionally, replace one of the five bets on three pirates with a five-way bet on all pirates.

The second one can be used if all five arenas have a moderately high value, and all of them are about as likely to upset (so no easy choice of which arenas to leave out when you want to fallback on the two-, three- or four-arena game):

  1. Ten bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of three arenas).
  2. Alternatively, make this ten bets on two 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of two arenas).

Final note

I consider the above system as a guideline.
I usually end up betting according to this system, but I also always check strength and food adjustment of the pirates in each arena.
Sometimes I end up deviating from the method described above. In some cases, this has made me more money, or reduced my loss. In other cases, it has cost me money.

And remember, Food Club is a gambling game. No matter how smart your system, you will always have days, sometimes even weeks, where you win nothing. Don't worry, just keep on playing. My statistics (see below) prove that in the long run, I come out ahead.


Statistics

The tables below list my results. These reflect the bets I made since I started to use the method described above.

Daily breakdown of the last month
Round Date Result
5602 August 17, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5603 August 18, 2014 32:10 (+22)
5604 August 19, 2014 22:10 (+12)
5605 August 20, 2014 20:10 (+10)
5606 August 21, 2014 64:10 (+54)
5607 August 22, 2014 16:10 (+6)
5608 August 23, 2014 16:10 (+6)
5609 August 24, 2014 56:10 (+46)
5610 August 25, 2014 20:10 (+10)
5611 August 26, 2014 44:10 (+34)1
5612 August 27, 2014 28:10 (+18)
5613 August 28, 2014 12:10 (+2)
5614 August 29, 2014 No bets2
5615 August 30, 2014 No bets3
5616 August 31, 2014 32:10 (+22)
5617 September 1, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5618 September 2, 2014 40:10 (+30)
5619 September 3, 2014 36:10 (+26)
5620 September 4, 2014 12:10 (+2)
5621 September 5, 2014 20:10 (+10)
5622 September 6, 2014 14:10 (+4)
5623 September 7, 2014 72:10 (+62)
5624 September 8, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5625 September 9, 2014 48:10 (+38)
5626 September 10, 2014 18:10 (+8)
5627 September 11, 2014 0:10 (-10)
5628 September 12, 2014 No bets4
5629 September 13, 2014 56:10 (+46)
5630 September 14, 2014 30:10 (+20)
5631 September 15, 2014 14:10 (+4)
5632 September 16, 2014 0:10 (-10)

Notes:
1 In round 5611, I decided to play a set of bets that was different from the bets my system advised. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the 44:10 that my system would have given me instead of the 64:10 result I actually had.
2 In round 5614, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 32:10 result I actually had.
3 In round 5614, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 30:10 result I actually had.
4 In round 5628, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 0:10 result I actually had.


Aggregated results per month
Month Total results Profit Avg daily profit Avg return
September, 2010 430:270 +160 +5,33 +59,3%
October, 2010 538:310 +228 +7,35 +73,5%
November, 2010 512:270 +242 +8,64 +89,6%
December, 2010 488:300 +188 +6,27 +62,7%
January, 2011 646:280 +366 +13,07 +130,7%
February, 2011 288:260 +28 +1,08 +10,8%
March, 2011 374:280 +94 +3,36 +33,6%
April, 2011 432:300 +132 +4,40 +44,0%
May, 2011 514:290 +224 +7,72 +77,2%
June, 2011 490:280 +210 +7,50 +75,0%
July, 2011 268:200 +68 +3,40 +34,0%
August, 2011 176:220 -44 -2,00 -20,0%
September, 2011 562:290 +272 +9,38 +93,8%
October, 2011 492:270 +222 +8,22 +82,2%
November, 2011 428:280 +148 +5,29 +52,9%
December, 2011 486:290 +196 +6,76 +67,6%
January, 2012 766:290 +476 +16,41 +164,1%
February, 2012 254:260 -6 -0,23 -2,3%
March, 2012 504:280 +224 +8,00 +80,0%
April, 2012 682:280 +402 +14,36 +143,6%
May, 2012 510:310 +200 +6,45 +64,5%
June, 2012 514:280 +234 +8,36 +83,6%
July, 2012 308:130 +178 +13,69 +136,9%
August, 2012 604:260 +344 +13,23 +132,3%
September, 2012 432:280 +152 +5,43 +54,3%
October, 2012 488:290 +198 +6,83 +68,3%
November, 2012 428:290 +138 +4,76 +47,6%
December, 2012 588:280 +308 +11,00 +110,0%
January, 2013 388:270 +118 +4,37 +43,7%
February, 2013 722:270 +452 +16,74 +167,4%
March, 2013 464:270 +194 +7,19 +71,9%
April, 2013 440:280 +160 +5,71 +57,1%
May, 2013 518:290 +228 +7,86 +78,6%
June, 2013 598:300 +298 +9,93 +99,3%
July, 2013 444:290 +154 +5,31 +53,1%
August, 2013 640:280 +360 +12,86 +128,6%
September, 2013 774:290 +484 +16,69 +166,9%
October, 2013 508:290 +218 +7,52 +75,2%
November, 2013 526:280 +246 +8,79 +87,9%
December, 2013 564:300 +264 +8,80 +88,0%
January, 2014 456:280 +176 +6,29 +62,9%
February, 2014 510:260 +250 +9,62 +96,2%
March, 2014 614:280 +334 +11,93 +119,3%
April, 2014 316:240 +76 +3,17 +31,7%
May, 2014 576:310 +266 +4,84 +85,8%
June, 2014 604:300 +304 +10,13 +101,3%
July, 2014 404:270 +134 +4,96 +49,6%
August, 2014 658:290 +368 +12,69 +126,9%
September, 2014 360:150 +210 +14,00 +140,0%
Overall totals 24206:13360 +10846 +8,12 +81,2%



Recently collected winnings:


Feedback? Feel free to mail me.




Heads Up! You're about to leave Neopia!

You've clicked on a link that will take you outside of
Neopets.com. We do not control your destination's website,
so its rules, regulations, and Meepit defense systems will be
different! Are you sure you'd like to continue?



It is a journey
I must face...alone.
*dramatic music*
I want to stay on Neopets,
where the dangers of
Meepit invasion
are taken seriously.
Heads Up! You're about to leave Neopia!

You've clicked on a link that will take you outside of
Neopets.com. We do not control your destination's website,
so its rules, regulations, and Meepit defense systems will be
different! Are you sure you'd like to continue?



It is a journey
I must face...alone.
*dramatic music*
I want to stay on Neopets,
where the dangers of
Meepit invasion
are taken seriously.
Heads Up! You're about to leave Neopia!

You've clicked on a link that will take you outside of
Neopets.com. We do not control your destination's website,
so its rules, regulations, and Meepit defense systems will be
different! Are you sure you'd like to continue?



It is a journey
I must face...alone.
*dramatic music*
I want to stay on Neopets,
where the dangers of
Meepit invasion
are taken seriously.
/help/bumper/headers/log-in-to-facebook

NEOPETS, characters, logos, names and all related indicia
are trademarks of Neopets, Inc., © 1999-2014.
® denotes Reg. US Pat. & TM Office. All rights reserved.

PRIVACY POLICY | Safety Tips | Contact Us | About Us | Press Kit
Use of this site signifies your acceptance of the Terms and Conditions