Hugo's Food Club page



My Food Club Bets for Round 5685 / November 27, 2014

DISCLAIMER:
I put these bets online for everyone, to use however they see fit.
I do not guarantee a profit if you choose to use them.
If the bets lose, it's *your* Neopoints down the drain. If the bets win, It's *your* Neopoints to bring to the bank, or to spend however you see fit.
Using these bets does not put you under any obligation to thank, reward, or even pay (*) me.
(*) Gifting is allowed on Neopets, but paying for services is not. Please don't put your -and my!!- account at risk by crossing this line!

First a heads up.
You may have noticed that I have been betting at odd times, or even missing days. This is because of a personal situation.
I try to return to regular betting, but I can at this time not guarantee anything.

I won 12:10 on a safety, due to Orvinn beating Fed.
(I should have stayed within my system - that would have won 20:10)

Three positive arenas today: Shipwreck, Lagoon, and Harpoon Harry's. But Shipwreck has a very low positive value - and looks very unstable. I am not playing that arena!
That leaves Lagoon and Harpoon Harry's for a two-arena play, with the three standard sasfeties, and boosters on all in Hidden Cove, and all except Stuff in Treasure Island.
(I did consider trading the four boosters in Hidden Cove for four boosters in Shipwreck. Yes, I mistrust that arena *that* much!)

P.S.: I'll update the statistics section below later.

Current Bets
RoundBet InfoAmountOddsWinnings
5685Lagoon: Franchisco Corvallio
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP8:144544 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Harpoon Harry's: Ol' Stripey
5568 NP14:177952 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Hidden Cove: Bonnie Pip Culliford
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP12:166816 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Hidden Cove: Sir Edmund Ogletree
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP20:1111360 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Hidden Cove: The Tailhook Kid
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP8:144544 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Hidden Cove: Captain Crossblades
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP48:1267264 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Treasure Island: Peg Leg Percival
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP40:1222720 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Treasure Island: Admiral Blackbeard
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP8:144544 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Treasure Island: Fairfax the Deckhand
Harpoon Harry's: Scurvy Dan the Blade
5568 NP8:144544 NP
5685Lagoon: Federismo Corvallio
Harpoon Harry's: Puffo the Waister
5568 NP14:177952 NP
Total Possible Winnings1002240 NP

Odds may change over the day. The listed odds are what they were at the time I updated the page.


Don't like my bets? Try someone else's.
A lot of people publish their bets and/or guides similar likes these. Most of them follow different strategies, and those that have a similar strategy still often make different choices.
Morris has compiled a list of Food Club bettor pages. So if you want to try someone else's bets, that page should be your first stop.

Some other Food Club related links:
Food Club main page
Revenge's Food Club guide
Sirhatter's betting guide
Food Club Monthly Competition


My betting system

The bets I made are based on a method I started using in september 2010. This method has proved itself to be better than the method I used before, and lots better than my first attempts to outsmart the system.
Many thanks go to sirhatter. His betting guide has helped me make lots of neopoints, until I found a way to improve upon his method.
Without sirhatter, this guide would never have existed.

What odds to use?

The odds for the various pirates change throughout the day. Many people have different theories about the relevance of opening odds, movements, and closing odds.
My theory is that the opening odds are determined by the Neopets computer, based on their actual chances of winning, and that movements throughout the day are caused by players' actions: if a lot of players bet a pirate his odds go up; if almost noone includes him, his odds go down.
Since I consider the opening odds to best reflect the actual chances, these are the odds I always use when picking my bets.

Calculating value

The first step in my betting system is to calculate the value for each of the five arenas. The value is found by converting the listed odds to percentage values, adding those percentage values, and subtracting the total from 100%.
For example, suppose the pirates in an arena are listed as 2:1, 6:1, 8:1 and 13:1. Converting to percentages yields 50%, 16.67%, 12.5%, and 7.69%; a total of 86.86%.
The value of this arena is 13.14% (100% - 86.86%).

Choosing bets

The next step is to count the number of arenas with a positive value, since the bets to be made depend on the number of positive values.

If there are no arenas with a positive value:

In this case, I don't bet at all.
There are people who will bet, and some will even make nice wins. But in my experience, you'll lose more neopoints than you win in the long run, so the winning strategy is not to bet if no arenas have a positive value.

If there is one arena with a positive value:

In the positive value arena, find the pirate with the 2:1 odds. (There should always be exactly one). I will make ten bets (the maximum), all on this pirate + one other pirate.

Here's how to find the ten pirates to include in these bets are:

  1. Start with the remaining arena with the highest value. (Since the remaining arenas have negative values, remember that -2.5% is higher then -14.8%!).
    Use all pirates from this arena, except those that have 13:1 odds. (The reason why I omit 13:1 pirates is that their real odds might be much worse. The Food Club never goes below 13:1, but the actual odds may be worse - and an actual win chance of (for instance) 25:1 with a payout of only 13:1 is terrible value. Sometimes, the strength and food adjustments of pirates indicate that it might be a "real" 13:1; in those cases, I do include the 13:1 pirate in these bets).
  2. Repeat the previous step until you have exhausted the ten bets.
Note that you must include all pirates from at least one arena. If all the arenas with "high" negative value have one or two 13:1 pirates, then you must either use a different arena, or include the 13:1 pirates from one arena (check strength and food adjustment to find one that is at least close to a "real" 13:1).

If there are two arenas with a positive value:

Let's call the arenas with a positive value X and Y.
You place ten bets, as follows:

  1. One bet on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with the 2:1 pirate from Y;
  2. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
  3. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
  4. All remaining bets are "booster bets" on three pirates: the two 2:1 pirates from X and Y plus one pirate from one of the three remaining arenas.
    The choice of the third pirate in the booster bets is similar to the choice for finding the second pirate in the section for one positive value above.
    One extra guideline is that the single 4:1 bet on the two 2:1 pirates may be replaced by a booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets. To make this happen, I sometimes include a 13:1 pirate in my set of booster bets.

If there are three arenas with a positive value:

If one of the three arenas has a very small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If all three arenas have at least a decent positive value, or if you decide to take a bit more risk (and maybe win a bit more), then you can play the full three arenas.
Let's call the arenas with a positive value X, Y, and Z.
You place ten bets, as follows:

  1. Three bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y, from X and Z, and from Y and Z;
  2. One bet on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z;
  3. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Z;
  4. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
  5. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from Y and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
  6. All remaining bets (if there are any) are "booster bets" on four pirates: the three 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z, combined with one pirate from one of the two remaining arenas.
    The choice of the fourth pirate in the remaining bets is similar to the choice for finding the third pirate in the section for two positive values above. This also includes the option to replace the single 8:1 bets on the three 2:1 pirates with an extra booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets.

If there are four arenas with a positive value:

This is extremely rare - and offers a very good chance to make lots of neopoints!

If two of the four arenas have an extremely small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If one of the four arenas has smallish positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for three arenas with a positive value (using the three arenas with the highest values).
If all four arenas have a very high value (20% or better), you can choose to go "all in" on the 2:1 pirates from these arenas:

  1. Four bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from each possible combination of three of the positive value arenas;
  2. Six bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates each possible combination of two of the positive value arenas.

If all five arenas have a positive value:

This is an extremely rare scenario. I have seen it happen - but only once or twice in more than a year of playing almost every day!
Anyway, if it does happen, then the method is similar to the four-arena scenario above.
There are two alternative strategies, though. The first one can be used if all five arenas have an extremely high value:

  1. Five bets on four 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of four arenas).
  2. Five bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every arena in three of these five bets, or using the highest value arenas more often).
  3. Optionally, replace one of the five bets on three pirates with a five-way bet on all pirates.
The second one can be used if all five arenas have a moderately high value, and all of them are about as likely to upset (so no easy choice of which arenas to leave out when you want to fallback on the two-, three- or four-arena game):
  1. Ten bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of three arenas).
  2. Alternatively, make this ten bets on two 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of two arenas).

Final note

I consider the above system as a guideline.
I usually end up betting according to this system, but I also always check strength and food adjustment of the pirates in each arena.
Sometimes I end up deviating from the method described above. In some cases, this has made me more money, or reduced my loss. In other cases, it has cost me money.

And remember, Food Club is a gambling game. No matter how smart your system, you will always have days, sometimes even weeks, where you win nothing. Don't worry, just keep on playing. My statistics (see below) prove that in the long run, I come out ahead.


Statistics

The tables below list my results. These reflect the bets I made since I started to use the method described above.

Daily breakdown of the last month
RoundDateResult
5629September 13, 201456:10 (+46)
5630September 14, 201430:10 (+20)
5631September 15, 201414:10 (+4)
5632September 16, 20140:10 (-10)
5633September 17, 201414:10 (+4)
5633September 21, 201414:10 (+4)
5634September 22, 201472:10 (+62)
5635September 23, 201424:10 (+14)
5636September 24, 201428:10 (+18)
5637September 25, 201420:10 (+10)
5638October 6, 2014No bets1
5639October 7, 201420:10 (+10)
5640October 13, 20140:10 (-10)
5641October 14, 201418:10 (+8)
5642October 15, 201412:10 (+2)
5643October 16, 201424:10 (+14)
5644October 17, 2014No bets2
5645October 18, 201412:10 (+2)
5646October 19, 201448:10 (+38)
5647October 20, 20140:10 (-10)
5648October 21, 201420:10 (+10)
5649October 22, 201420:10 (+10)
5650October 23, 201420:10 (+10)
5651October 24, 201416:10 (+6)
5652October 25, 20140:10 (-10)
5653October 26, 20140:10 (-10)
5654October 27, 201412:10 (+2)
5655October 28, 201414:10 (+4)
5656October 29, 201424:10 (+14)
5657October 30, 201414:10 (+4)
5658October 31, 20140:10 (-10)

Notes:
1 In round 5638, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 16:10 result I actually had.
2 In round 5644, my system told me not to play. But I was unable to restrain myself, and placed some bets anyway. Since these statistics are supposed to track the value of my system, I have included the "No bets" that my system advised, instead of the 0:10 result I actually had.


Aggregated results per month
MonthTotal resultsProfitAvg daily profitAvg return
September, 2010430:270+160+5,33+59,3%
October, 2010538:310+228+7,35+73,5%
November, 2010512:270+242+8,64+89,6%
December, 2010488:300+188+6,27+62,7%
January, 2011646:280+366+13,07+130,7%
February, 2011288:260+28+1,08+10,8%
March, 2011374:280+94+3,36+33,6%
April, 2011432:300+132+4,40+44,0%
May, 2011514:290+224+7,72+77,2%
June, 2011490:280+210+7,50+75,0%
July, 2011268:200+68+3,40+34,0%
August, 2011176:220-44-2,00-20,0%
September, 2011562:290+272+9,38+93,8%
October, 2011492:270+222+8,22+82,2%
November, 2011428:280+148+5,29+52,9%
December, 2011486:290+196+6,76+67,6%
January, 2012766:290+476+16,41+164,1%
February, 2012254:260-6-0,23-2,3%
March, 2012504:280+224+8,00+80,0%
April, 2012682:280+402+14,36+143,6%
May, 2012510:310+200+6,45+64,5%
June, 2012514:280+234+8,36+83,6%
July, 2012308:130+178+13,69+136,9%
August, 2012604:260+344+13,23+132,3%
September, 2012432:280+152+5,43+54,3%
October, 2012488:290+198+6,83+68,3%
November, 2012428:290+138+4,76+47,6%
December, 2012588:280+308+11,00+110,0%
January, 2013388:270+118+4,37+43,7%
February, 2013722:270+452+16,74+167,4%
March, 2013464:270+194+7,19+71,9%
April, 2013440:280+160+5,71+57,1%
May, 2013518:290+228+7,86+78,6%
June, 2013598:300+298+9,93+99,3%
July, 2013444:290+154+5,31+53,1%
August, 2013640:280+360+12,86+128,6%
September, 2013774:290+484+16,69+166,9%
October, 2013508:290+218+7,52+75,2%
November, 2013526:280+246+8,79+87,9%
December, 2013564:300+264+8,80+88,0%
January, 2014456:280+176+6,29+62,9%
February, 2014510:260+250+9,62+96,2%
March, 2014614:280+334+11,93+119,3%
April, 2014316:240+76+3,17+31,7%
May, 2014576:310+266+4,84+85,8%
June, 2014604:300+304+10,13+101,3%
July, 2014404:270+134+4,96+49,6%
August, 2014658:290+368+12,69+126,9%
September, 2014518:200+318+15,90+159,0%
October, 2014274:190+84+4,42+44,2%
Overall totals24638:13600+11038+8,12+81,2%



Recently collected winnings:

Feedback? Feel free to mail me.




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