Lefty's Food Club Bets
Welcome to Lefty's Food Club Bets! I've been playing Food Club for four years and it's my favorite game on Neopets. Each day I post my bets here. You are welcome to copy mine if you wish, or you might want to follow one of the other betting pages in the links section. Copying another player's bets is a great way to learn how to make your own bets. Be sure to take a look at Revenge's Guide for more information about the game and suggested betting strategies.
Important: Food Club times have been glitched. The gates close between 1:45 pm - 2:15 pm NST as usual, however results have been available shortly after 1:07 pm NST. I recommend getting your bets in BEFORE 1:00 pm NST today.
5630 - 32:10
September Cumulative Total - 298:140
My Betting Style
Strictly speaking, I don't follow a system; however, I do have guidelines which I follow.
1. As a general rule, I like to take some risk because it is: (a) more fun and interesting to do so in my opinion; and (b) more profitable over time. However, I don't get too crazy, and I always incorporate safeties in my betting.
2. My favorite type of card is when there is at least one arena with a clearly favored pirate (meaning there is a 2:1 pirate and the other pirates are 5:1 or greater). It's better still when at least two of the pirates are long shots (at 10:1 to 13:1). The more arenas like this on a given day the better.
3. Whenever possible I try to incorporate bets on pirates that have a positive Estimated Value (EV).
4. I avoid making bets that are less then 10:1 (breaking even), unless there's a good chance of a cascade. Then they add up, which is good.
5. Most of the time I ignore Food Adjustments since I assume that they are already reflected in the odds. The exception to this is when there is a pirate with a +4 FA or higher. In that case I tend to place a little more value on the likely outcome of such pirates.
6. A word about why I don't explain my bets. Actually, I did explain them for a while but decided to discontinue. Why? For one, although I understand probability and statistics reasonably well (master's level in social science), my betting style has an intuitive component that is difficult to explain to others. Second, while trying to explain my bets I realized that I was overthinking my bets. Not good; hence the reason that I don't provide an explanation.
Apr 2014 Gambit