Risk Factor:Medium

My betting strategy changes from day to day depending on the odds; however, my main goal is always to cover as many possibilities as possible. This means safeties on pirates with middling odds or pirates who are at 13:1 but started out in the 10-12:1 range. This means that if the 2:1s win, we won't necessarily make a lot of profit, but if there is an upset by a middling or high-odd pirate, we can make win some high quality NP. One thing I very rarely do is bet the double upset though, as I usually would have to sacrifice some safeties to do so.

My system takes Food Adjustment and win streaks into account, and sometimes strength if I'm torn between two pirates. I tend to bet more heavily on pirates with +4 or higher FAs. Certain pirates, such as Ol' Stripey, tend to do well when their FA's are +3 or higher, while pirates like Buck Cutlass and Ned the Skipper have an interesting habit of winning at negative FAs. Whenever you take an FA into consideration, think about the FAs of that pirate's competitors as well.

There are times when I will bet heavily on a pirate who desperately needs a win, especially when he is at higher odds. Usually these pirates are on the weaker end of the spectrum and will go a couple weeks between wins. When a pirate's loss streak is up at a month or more, I start safetying them or even betting heavily on them on a daily basis. This has led to some losses in the past, but if they pull an upset and their odds are high, you can get some very sweet profit indeed.
I do the same with pirates from the stronger end of the spectrum, but after a much shorter amount of time since they generally win more than they lose.
It works the other way too--pirates who are on insane win streaks need a loss sometime, so it's often a good time to bet on the higher-odd pirates in their arena.

• First I look at all the arenas, FAs and streaks, and choose the pirate I think is most likely to win in each arena (These pirates form my Gambit bets for the competition we have on the Neoboards).
• Then I decide how to bet--safe, medium, or risky. I will bet in any arenas with one 2:1 pirate and 3 pirates at 5:1 or over because it reduces the safeties you need. I choose arenas with more pirates at 13:1 because I don't cover them unless I suspect they will pull an upset (ie their starting odds were under 13:1 or they need a win or have a high FA.) If an arena has no 13:1s I generally skip it, unless a high-odd pirate has a good chance of winning for the reasons above.
• The exception to the rule above is if an arena has no 2:1s in it. I like to use these arenas because I can make 3-way bets that are already at 12:1--3-way bets with only 2:1s require an extra 4:1 bet on 2 pirates to ensure you make over 10:1, and this kind of arena eliminates the need for that bet and frees it up for something else.
• Sometimes if a round has really crummy odds, I'll go risky and wild because the most I'll make is 12:1 anyway. I also tend to bet riskier if I am at the start of a hold because there's no risk to a high-score attempt if I lose.
• I like to start with 4- or even 5-arena bets if the odds are decent and narrow it down, covering the pirates in the arena I think is most likely for an upset. Then I drop that arena from the remaining bets and repeat the process for the other arenas, making 3- and 2-way bets to cover the more remote safeties.
• If I have extra bets available, I like to either bet my Gambit picks, boost a lower-profit bet by betting on the same pirates minus one (as you cannot have the same bet twice), or else boost a risky or large-profit bet that has some good potential.
• Sometimes you have to sacrifice bets to fit others in. I will generally sacrifice a safety on a weaker 13:1, although I have been known to sacrifice some bets on the 2:1s at times in order to safety a high-odd pirate who I suspect could pull an upset. You have to think about what you could lose and what you stand to gain.