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ANALYSIS OF AC7 PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS
June 23 2012
Now that the official final standings of Altador Cup 7 have been released, I thought it would be a good time to go over some of the predictions I made and see what my psychic abilities have correctly predicted, and other things that I was horribly wrong about. My set of predictions were made during the May before the start of AC7, and have since been left untouched apart from a quick shuffle between Maraqua/Terror Mountain during the sign-up week. This analysis will be based on standings points (what the standings would look like with the DRR system) rather than the official TNT standings - because as we all know, TNT's official standings are less reliable than Kim Kardashian's wedding vows. Now the actual review. Note that predictions that were Less than 3 standings off are in green and predictions 4 or more standings off are in red. Starting with my predictions that ended up to be less stupid:
I TOLD YOU SO's:
Predicted: 18th || Actual: 18th
Faerieland forced to use their feet at 18th. I had mentioned that, although Faerieland was finally starting to get -decent- at something (Slushie Slinger), the fact that the other underdogs were also starting to get good at Slushie (Altador, Brightvale, Kiko Lake, and Terror Mountain) was NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR THEM. If Slushie Slinger remained to be FL's only saving grace, it would only allow the other underdog teams to pass them while every other team would simply be able to put extra focus into Slushie Slinger and sweep.
Predicted: 16th || Actual: 15th
Moltara rises from the dead. Okay, I literally had NOTHING in terms of game records to back this up because Moltara has historically lost pretty much everything. But nevertheless, they moved into a low Tier-4 position. So I guess this one was a lucky prediction, and I have my gut to thank for this one. Thanks gut! :D
Predicted: 15th || Actual: 17th
Altador is still Altador. Among the most consistents team of the cup.
Predicted: 14th || Actual: 13th
Shenkuu ninjas decide to use the front door instead of sneaking onto their opponents. It seems that Shenkuu did not lose their gigantic freeloading population, nor did they receive the active players that were needed to lead the team to a recovery. I believe that if anything, Shenkuu grew in population in AC7 and all the newer players weren't exactly hardcore ones. That, ontop of the Shenkuu's stereotype of being the drama llamas, led them to become a 4th tier-ish type team, exactly as I predicted.
Predicted: 13th || Actual: 11th
Roo Island goes for a change in strategy. I can't tell for sure how the team actually focused this year since Im not a Rooligan, but from the looks of it Roo Island indeed tried to transfer some of their yooyuball strength from last year into the side-games, and just as predicted it took a toll on their yooyuball matches.
Predicted: 12th || Actual: 9th
Kiko Lake escapes Tier 4 standings for the first time. I had quite a bit of criticism for predicting this one, but looks like the Kikos lived up to my expectations! They actually went quite a bit over them too, and become a Tier 3/Tier 2 level team (by the DRR format's standards).
Predicted: 11th || Actual: 10th
Virtupets doesn't escape the gravity of the Winner's Curse. I really have nothing much to say about this one. For the most part, VP's performances were extremely predictable and while YYB/MSN remained their strengths, the Winner's curse takes a toll on both of their strengths and claims yet another victim.
Predicted: 9th || Actual: 2nd
Mystery Island actually gives a about the Altador Cup. With the help of a little bit of bias, I correctly guessed that MI would make improvement, but never did I expect for them to stand on the podium. Going from 14th to a podium position is something that does not happen, unless of course if you're Mystery Island in Altador Cup 7.
Predicted: 8th || Actual: 8th
Maraqua faces motivation issues and retreats back with the tides... for now. They started off decently in the first bracket, however a single sweep given to them by Kiko Lake bumped a chunk of the team off the tracks, and the rest of Maraqua's performances were less than what was expected. I predicted them in 8th and based off W/D/L standings points that is exactly where they ended up!
Predicted: 4th || Actual: 5th ///
Predicted: 2nd || Actual: 4th
The race between Krawk Island and Darigan Citadel continues again for the 3rd time and still doesn't finish. I think most people can agree that these 2 teams are the biggest contenders to being the first team to win twice, and even as close as they came, both missed out again (and these 2 probably took the biggest hits from the new system).
Predicted: 1st || Actual: 3rd
Meridell finally enters the gates of the first tier. Probably another lucky prediction of mine that was bound to happen. This was actually my third year predicting them in first and BAH I WAS SO CLOSE THIS TIME.
WAIT I WAS JUST KIDDING:
Predicted: 17th || Actual: 6th
The most horribly inaccurate prediction I made this year. I thought that Lost Desert's collapse in Altador Cup 6 would lead their supporters (who are normally accustomed to winning most of their matches) to leave the team in favor of others. As easy as some say their schedule was this year, I think that they did more than enough to prove that they made the jump back into the stronger end of the teams and really do deserve their position.
Predicted: 10th || Actual: 12th
I had thought Brightvale would up their performance and have a fighting chance for a 2nd tier position because of how much potential they showed in Altador Cup 6, but instead it looks like they lost most of their unpredictability and didn't exactly show the amount of bite that I was hoping for them to show.
Predicted: 7th || Actual: 1st
The almighty Kreludor was miles ahead of the other 17 teams this year and it became clear pretty early on that they would probably be the ones to win. You would think that they would start to suffer from fatigue after years of maintaining a position in the 1st tier and constantly losing the finals, but I guess they have more heart than we thought!
Predicted: 6th || Actual: 16th
I love to go by the saying of Expecting the Unexpected, and that you are wrong 100% of the time if you don't try. Haunted Woods was one of the predictions I threw out there with little evidence to back it up, but they ended up dropping even further this year despite what TNT's strange standings suggest. Haunted Woods did not do so hot in the results and their performance was similar to that of a 4th tier team this time around.
Predicted: 5th || Actual: 14th
I witnessed a handful of drama coming out of this team this year but once again I am not a TM'er, so I dont know enough to be able to tell the full story of the inner-workings of TOTM. This is the one team that I dont quite understand why they ended up performing the way they did. Whatever happened on TM this year, they lost a bit of their terror and moved back into a 4th tier leveled team.
Predicted: 3rd || Actual: 7th
I was not alone in predicting that Tyrannia would be a cup contender this year. There was plenty of hype for this team during the preseason for AC7, but I think that this hype may have actually ended up harming them given that TY's population was already so small and the potential amount of freeloaders that were ready to swamp the team this year because of how they well they were speculated to do. I feel that I should have seen this coming, but hopefully they can get rid of some of the dead weight before AC8.
So there you have it. Overall, Im happy with how this year's set of predictions turned out (compared to last year in which I did horrible) and I was actually able to nail a couple things this time. As you are reading this, I am (kinda)working on preseason predictions for Altador Cup 8 and hope to get them up as soon as possible, so keep on checking back. Once I finish with them I will keep up a thread in the Altador Cup boards until it is taken down, after which I will move to the Virtupets board for a bit.
Click on team logos for the explanation!
Lost Desert and Terror Mountain are in progress.
All predictions are subject to change