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CURRENT RESULTS FOR PHASE 3

This is an ongoing analysis.

Seconds most likely to get an item: 48, 49 (40% or greater) Seconds most likely to get blasted: 13, 17, 19, 33, 39, 45, 46 (40% or greater) Minutes most likely to get an item: - (40% or greater) Minutes most likely to get blasted: 6, 49, 52 (40% or greater)
	Seconds	Minutes
Total attempts logged: Total items stolen: Item %: Blast % (icy and massive): Nothing % (moves/wakes): Avatar % (icy and massive):	9,283 2,987 32.18% 35.18% 32.64% 0.22%	22,792 7,558 33.16% 34.60% 32.23% 0.18%	* Numbers in red did NOT change since the last update, giving us a pretty good indication that the percentage is accurate. Also of note, the percentages for the minutes are now changing only some-hundredths of a percentage point each update -- again, indicating accuracy. **Avatar percentage includes some attempts by reporters who have received the avatar, so the percentage is actually a bit higher than shown.

TIMES OF INTEREST -- See if attempting at the following times gives you the same results. Don't forget to report in no matter what happens! :) This section has been completely re-analyzed! xx:xx:55 On the 1st day of the month, if the event loads at a time ending in xx:xx:55, you will almost surely be blasted (16 out of 19 attempts resulted in blasts) 2:00:03 All 3 attempts have received an item. 2:00:44 Three out of 4 visitors have received negg items at this time. 2:00:56 All 3 attempts have resulted in massive icy blasts. 2:21:30 All 3 attempts have resulted in items. 2:21:52 All 3 attempts have resulted in items. 2:25:07 Two attempts have resulted in scratchcards. 2:30:56 All 3 attempts have resulted in icy blasts. Times with 20 Attempts or More - try reporting at these times if you can! Time (M:S) Attempts Item Nada Blast I% N% B% 00:05 20 5 8 7 25.00% 40.00% 35.00% 00:55 25 6 10 9 24.00% 40.00% 36.00% 01:38 33 12 12 9 36.36% 36.36% 27.27% 01:54 29 10 8 11 34.48% 27.59% 37.93% 01:55 20 6 9 5 20.00% 15.00% 65.00% 02:55 26 10 8 8 38.46% 30.77% 30.77% 05:55 35 8 12 15 22.86% 34.29% 42.86% 20:55 20 8 7 5 40.00% 35.00% 25.00% 21:45 22 8 4 10 36.36% 18.18% 45.45% 21:46 42 14 11 17 33.33% 26.19% 40.48% 21:55 36 8 17 11 22.22% 47.22% 30.56% 51:54 20 5 6 9 25.00% 30.00% 45.00% 55:54 33 10 11 12 30.30% 33.33% 36.36% 55:55 53 18 20 15 33.96% 37.74% 28.30% Other times (Min:Sec) that have nearly 20 attempts (so try these, too!): 21:47 23:55 40:55 55:56 55:57

AVATAR INFO -- Phase 3 Whenever someone gets the avatar, the data will go here. Perhaps we'll see a trend eventually! *crosses fingers* Congrats to these lucky folks!
User	Day	Date	Time	Event
denny_the_wench			10:30:39	icy
skunkgallery			10:00:33	icy
anonymous user			10:00:06	icy
pirattitude			2:21:46	icy
marinersfan2390	Sun	8/13/06	10:27:17	icy
krisrose0340	Wed	8/16/06	2:27:33	icy
sunnystar98	Wed	8/16/06	10:34:43	massive
ferocity562	Thu	8/17/06	2:01:42	icy
buzzybzn	Sun	8/27/06	10:39:24	icy
stacey0240	Sun	9/03/06	10:10:22	icy
pikestaff	Tue	9/05/06	10:08:55	massive
2silly_girl2	Mon	9/11/06	2:54:09	icy
nanafarm	Tue	10/03/06	6:09:08	icy
alkistix	Tue	10/17/06	6:24:20	massive
mm61991	Fri	11/03/06	2:58:57	massive
lemurlori	Sun	11/5/06	6:15:53	massive
bagnold	Thu	11/16/06	10:00:02	icy
jhaq	Fri	11/17/06	10:56:42	massive
rock_star_megs	Sat	11/18/06	6:56:47	massive
lieutenant_archer	Wed	12/13/06	2:33:40	massive
sweep_the_doghouse	Wed	12/13/06	2:45:23	massive
quinsioux	Thu	12/19/06	2:50:01	massive
qsilv	Sun	1/07/07	10:59:24	icy
linkinparkgrrrl19	Mon	1/08/07	10:05:36	massive
d_licious	Thu	1/25/07	2:32:16	massive
point_and_click	Sat	1/27/07	10:15:10	massive
stcara1	Fri	2/09/07	2:45:25	icy
donaspoetry	Sat	2/17/07	2:54:53	massive
inuandkag4ever	Sat	2/24/07	10:51:29	icy
morganlefeyfaery	Wed	2/28/07	2:22:07	icy
pinkyhs57	Fri	5/4/07	10:49	massive
starizard	Mon	5/14/07	2:54:49	massive
nicegirl134	Wed	7/11/07	2:00:28	icy
totallyicedbluecat	Fri	7/13/07	10:05:24	massive
neonickdude	Mon	7/16/07	2:52:31	massive
ks_33	Sun	7/29/07	10:30:04	massive
blugaligal	Sat	4/5/08	10:11:48	icy

MOST POPULAR OVERALL -- What you are most likely to get if you manage to steal something (percent indicates chance of receiving that particular item if you receive an item at all -- there is approximately a 1/3 chance you will receive an item during your visit): Race to Riches Scratchcard: 5.69% Terror Trove Scratchcard: 5.21% Faeries Fortune Scratchcard: 4.84% Purple Negg: 4.22% Negg: 3.94%

MOST POPULAR PER CATEGORY -- The most stolen item for each category: Negg: Purple Negg Scratchcard: Race to Riches Snowball: Wet Keyring: Blue Korbat Plushie: Red Cybunny, Yellow Usul Weapon: Trumpet of Deafening Super Rare: Snowager Petpet Bed

LEAST POPULAR PER CATEGORY -- The most rarely stolen item for each category: Negg: Candy Filled (still pretty new) Scratchcard: Faeries Fortune Snowball: Sand Keyring: Cloud Jetsam (still quite new item) Plushie: Red Grundo, Red Koi, Golden Shoyru Weapon: Cheap Air Ring Super Rare: Snowager Stained Glass Window

TRENDS

• Some questions we would like to answer: Does the second matter? Does it need to be a combination of the second, minute, and hour to always be sure of the result? Do people with usernames beginning with certain letters get different results than other usernames (like the Shop Wiz)? Will anyone ever get one of the super rare items from the Snowager? So many questions. Hopefully, we'll find answers to these questions AND questions we didn't even know to ask soon...and the results will be posted right here!
• During the week of Hiding 1, Y8, the Snowager gave out a lot of snowball items, more than any other items.
• During the week of Hiding 13, Y8, the Snowager did not give out very many items of any kind -- mostly he just blasted, moved, and woke (but not exclusively).
• During the week of Hiding 20, Y8, the Snowager gave out lots of Battledome weapons, more than any other items.
• During the week of Gathering 8, Y8, the Snowager gave out loads of neggs, more than anything else.
• On Monday, Gathering 11, Y8, the Snowager gave out a very large number of plushies, more than any other item. Also on Monday, Gathering 11, Y8, there was an unusually high percentage of items stolen (48%!) when the normal range of stolen items is 25-35%.
• On Thursday, Gathering 7, a huge percentage of reporters had nothing happen to them during their visits (waking/moving).
• We can definitely discount that just going at the same minute or even the same minute AND second (10:22:30, for instance) will guarantee any particular result for some combination. However, it's still under investigation whether going at the same exact time on the same day of the week or date of the year WOULD guarantee a specific result. And just maybe the username of the reporter has something to do with the results as well. It could also have something to do with when the page loaded BEFORE clicking to try to steal rather than after. We are still looking at the AFTER, but might switch in the future.
• More reporters visit the Snowager from 10-11 pm than the other two times (6-7; 2-3); however, most of the avatars have been won at the 10-11 time. Therefore, your chance of getting the avatar is higher when Snowager is sleeping from 10-11 pm. Is this because your chances of getting the avatar are higher due to less people visiting? Or is it just a plain and simple truth that the avatar is giving out more often at night?

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ITEMS STOLEN

Click here to see the many treasures our pioneers have stolen!

DATA CHART

This is a portion of the raw collected data for Phase 3.

BD=battledome item; KR=keyring; NG=negg; PL=plushie; SC=scratchcard; TI=total items.

September Tabulation

October Tabulation

Totals	Bd	Kr	Ng	Pl	Sb	Sc	TI	Blast	Nada	# Rep	%I	%B	%N	%bd	%kr	%ng	%pl	%sb	%sc
Fri	23	18	24	24	20	22	131	118	130	379	34.56%	31.13%	34.30%	17.56%	13.74%	18.32%	18.32%	15.27%	16.79%
Sat	23	18	20	32	26	11	130	136	157	423	30.73%	32.15%	37.12%	17.69%	13.85%	15.38%	24.62%	20.00%	8.46%
Sun	19	16	12	18	15	14	94	131	102	327