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Loaded Dice: 7 Lucky Tips for the Streak Avatar


by zfernbaugh

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You're a true master of the dice. You play for your daily 5k, and you got that one avatar and the cumulative trophy so long ago you can't remember. You even snagged a silver lucky streak trophy when you got 8 in a row a few months ago, but you still haven't managed that final daunting task. No matter how many times you play, you never seem within reach of the lucky streak avatar, and your total play count is getting dangerously close to 20,000, or maybe you're looking at 20k in the rearview mirror. You thought it was time to buckle down, 100 games a day until you get it, but that was almost a year ago, and you still haven't even gotten 8 in a row again. It all seems hopeless doesn't it?

Well, it is definitely one of the very hardest avatars to acquire, and rightly so, but it is possible, and with a bit of strategy and planning, you can get it. I'm not lucky enough to be among the very few to achieve this goal, but I'm sure I'll get there some day. So, without taking up any more time, let's get to it.

1. Strategy.

In a game that's all about numbers, probability and statistics takes on a huge roll in your decision of what dice to keep, and when to roll. A Proper strategy takes into account what you already have, the chances of winning with the dice you just rolled, and the odds of getting something better if you roll again. A sample strategy (with a roughly 28.5% win rate) can be found at //www.neopets.com/~garreg if you need a place to start. It's not the greatest, and it's still being tweaked, but at least if you follow it long enough, you should be able to get the daily 5k.

2. The Bottom Line.

While doing research for this article, I played 500 rounds of bilge dice and recorded the results. It's hardly a definitive source of information, but it was enough to notice some trends, the most glaring of which is the cutoff point for any hope of winning. In the games played, not a single score below 18 ever gave a win, and even then 18 only won once in the 38 times I rolled it. So if you're at 13 and you rolled a 5, you have a better chance of rolling a six and then winning with a 19 (still very low) than sticking with the 5 and winning with an 18.

3. The other odds.

Of course, the higher your score, the better your chance of winning, but what really are your chances of winning? Well, with a 19, you stand at a measly 6%, your chances jump to a little over 25% with a score of 20, and 33% at 21. 22 averaged about a 55% chance of winning and 23 was close to 66%. Unsurprisingly, 24 came on top with a 96% success rate, winning every time except once in 29 appearances, when it tied. It's hard to get your head around the fact that 2 points could change your chance of winning by as much as 30 or 40%, but it seems to be the reality of the game.

4. Discarding.

With the knowledge that there's basically no chance of winning under 18, and still a pretty slim chance under 20, a proper strategy will want to maximize the frequency of 20+ scores. There are three main types of strategies that differ on this topic. The first Focuses on getting qualifiers, and then deals with the chances of getting better dice on the next rolls. The second Takes the qualifiers when it can, but sacrifies them in favor of getting better results on the following roll. The final strategy attempts to take a middle ground, sometimes sacrificing points to make sure a qualifier comes up, and sometimes waiting to take a qualifier in order to extend the chances of getting more 6s. I don't know if one is better than the others, but I have preferences about how I like to play, and I imagine you do too, so until it can be shown that one is always better, pick the style that best suits you.

5. Probability.

This is the kind of game statistics and probability teachers are talking about when they're not taking away your phone and telling you to pay attention. That's because this entire game is based on probabilities and statistics. You have a specific amount of information you know (what dice you rolled, what dice your opponents have kept), and there is some information that you don't know (what else your opponents rolled, what you will roll next). Because of this, it is important to rely on probability, or the chance of something happening. In the case of this game, you want to know which move you make will lead to a greater chance of winning. With the scope of the game (6 dice for 4 players, up to 5 extra rolls, possibly 21 dice rolls in 1 game) it gets tricky to map out every possibility, so even with math backing up your plays, it's still only a limited amount of help.

6. Timing.

For me, this is a relatively recent development in my attempts to get 10 in a row, because I find it very counterintuitive. Ideally, you would have a strategy that just always gives the best possible chance of winning, and that's that, but there are some situations where you may want to change your strategy. For instance, if you haven't started a streak yet, maybe it's better to toss a few potential 21s and 22s in favor of getting to the next game and getting a 23 or 24 sooner. Or perhaps you're at 9, and your strategy tells you to ignore that second qualifier in the hopes that it'll return again and in the meantime you'll have more opportunity to grab a 6 or two, but you might want to play it safe and instead risk a lower score rather than no score at all.

7. It's a Game.

The most important thing to remember when playing Bilge Dice is that it's a game. You're meant to have fun, whether you're trying for the avatar, just playing for a daily 5k, holding out for a gold trophy, or just passing time. While I haven't developed a perfect strategy yet, I know for sure that if you aren't having fun, you're doing it wrong.

Bilge Dice, though simple, is deceptive in its ability to frustrate and confound players. In order to stand a chance of getting the lucky streak avatar you'll need a well thought-out strategy, knowledge of when to give up and try again, when to risk everything on a desparate throw, when to hold out even if it means possibly losing your current streak, and what move is the best choice at any given time. You need patience, timing, and several high-level math degrees. Well, maybe not that one, but they couldn't hurt. But most of all remember to let loose and enjoy yourself. I'm off to get a few more rounds in before bed, and I hope you do the same.

 
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